Many believe that the US-brokered deal reached between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto before the latter’s return to Pakistan in April last year was clinched after the PPP had agreed not to proceed against the general if he absolved the party leadership of corruption and criminal charges that were levelled against them. For his part, Musharraf fulfilled the promise by promulgating the PPP-specific National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) before the February election and also secured for it the Supreme Court’s approval after sacking the errant judges. The legality of the NRO and Musharraf’s presidency are bound together as indemnified by the post-November 3 Supreme Court, while the previous apex court presided over by Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry had called the NRO to book, a move that Zardari cannot find in his heart to forgive.

As for the president seeking a vote of confidence from parliament, there is no provision in the constitution, after all, requiring him to do so. This indeed will become the moot point in legal circles and the debate can drag on, with the result that the reinstatement of the judges, to which the ruling coalition has once again committed itself as the next move after Musharraf’s “impeachment”, will remain a pipedream. This is the likely outcome of the whole drama if Zardari chooses to act decently. If, on the other hand, he has been convinced by Sharif to punish Musharraf, then that is a different and dangerous game altogether. Musharraf is known to act rashly whenever he felt he was being “pushed against the wall” — his own words. The next question is: who and what will decide the final outcome, the drop scene? The answer is predictable: the new general in his untainted, brand new chief-of-the-army-staff khakis and a long-distance phone call between the GHQ and the White House. This is unless of course the reborn ISI, now supposedly operating under the interior ministry, and the CIA have pre-arranged alternative plans to put in action when the time comes.

... contd.