During a turbulent decade in power, Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, has been greatly helped by his own remarkable ability to inspire loyalty among ordinary Venezuelans on the one hand, and the sharp rise in the price of oil, the country's only significant export, on the other. But the world price of oil has fallen from a peak of $147 last July to $40. And popular discontent with Mr Chávez's corrupt and autocratic regime is mounting. So 2009 looks like being a difficult year for Mr Chávez and his "Bolivarian revolution".

Re-elected as president in December 2006, Mr Chávez is not due to leave office until January 2013. But he is rushing to hold a referendum on a constitutional amendment that would remove the limit on further presidential terms. This measure has already been defeated once, albeit narrowly, in a referendum on a wider bundle of constitutional proposals in December 2007. As five years of oil-induced economic boom turn to imminent bust, Mr Chávez needs to move fast, lest the mood of the electorate should turn decisively against him.

The president's overwhelming parliamentary majority, together with his grip on the supreme court and the electoral authority, mean that the referendum may be held as early as mid-February. But he faces an uphill fight to get the amendment approved. He is still popular, with an approval rating of between 55% and 60% in most polls. His candidates won around 53% of the vote in state and municipal elections in November. But those same polls show that public opinion is strongly against removing presidential term limits.

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