Third, we are yet to come to terms with how profoundly destabilising the Taliban’s presence is. It has moved the question away from narrow concerns of security and violence to the spectre of profound social destabilisation. The issue is not whether the Pakistani state will collapse; in a sense it won’t. The issue is not also whether life seems normal in places like Lahore. The issue is whether the social dislocations induced make for an explosive mix. Given the security situation, the investment climate will remain precarious for some time. There are already more than half a million new internal refugees, always a harbinger of crisis. According to informants in Pakistan, there is such a growing weariness about all existing institutions, that the receptivity towards ideologies that promise a modicum of order increases. Revolutions occur not because of popular support, but when elites lose the will to rule. Pakistan is precariously close to that point.

We may be at the threshold of a momentous geo-political moment. The never-ending Afghan wars have moved eastward, already making a mockery of one border between nation states. And though one should not exaggerate, the prospects of refugees coming to India is no longer a merely academic question. In short, boundaries are being rendered irrelevant in an ironic sense. The ability of the US to control outcomes has also been shown to be seriously wanting, and India should be cautious in its identification with the US.

There are different possible outcomes, each with its own challenges. The first outcome is what one might call status quo minus. Pakistan remains recognisably what it is, but with increasingly eroding authority and susceptibility to radical ideologies. The second option is a reassertion of conventional army authority, but with more protracted fighting. The third is a spectre of deepening anarchy with no centre. It is important to understand that there is no predetermined structural logic that will determine the outcome; it will be political choice all the way down.

... contd.