Opinion State of December

Andhra Pradesh,ever since its formation,has been vital to the Congress party’s politics. So the concern at the Centre for restoring health to the fractious state unit is completely understandable. The state has been,conversely,important for the opposition at all times,as it shares with Tamil Nadu a tendency towards electoral waves,with voters punishing ruthlessly those that disappoint. Andhra Pradesh has,however,not always signalled who holds the Centre or anything — that burden may be reserved for the more populous north Indian states — but it has usually provided one chunk of seats,a chunk that’s often gone in a different direction from elsewhere. Consider 1977, the first time the Congress lost power at the Centre,but won 41 of 42 seats,registering its highest-ever vote share in the state of over 57 per cent.

Till almost 1983,Andhra voters swore by the Congress. Their devotion to “Indiramma” (who must still have a record number of schemes named after her in the state) also showed in the trust the iron lady of the Indian political scene had in the state; in difficult years Medak was one of the two seats kept aside by her as the “surest”.

In 1984,when the Congress swept the Lok Sabha polls in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s assassination,the Congress got just six seats in Andhra. By then the Telugu Desam had established a quick foothold in the state,starting with N.T. Rama Rao’s famous rath yatra,in effect foreshadowing the politics of the “third front” that would come to dominate the national scene a few years hence.

It is to the credit of the two big men of Andhra subsequently,N. Chandrababu Naidu,earlier better known as NTR’s low-profile but wily son-in-law,and then YSR,that they made the state in sync with the Centre’s politics,or more specifically in a position to leverage power for their state and themselves by a wholehearted engagement in Central power-play,directly drawing benefits by providing support or a “base”.

What must worry the Congress is how its base seems to be slowly eroding,even as north India appears increasingly indifferent to its discreet charms. In a somewhat belated manoeuvre aimed at under- standing its own support there,an attempt has been made to woo the Reddys,only about 9 per cent of the population,but the dominant caste group traditionally supportive of the Congress. This is also with a view to mopping up Jagan Reddy’s potential sympathisers. But by skewing the new ministry so visibly in that attempt — with 14 ministries initially with the Reddys and only 10 to the backward castes — they may have lost the plot in a cynical attempt to try and go “practical”. Andhra has been very different from the Tamil Nadu experience,where the Congress was once able to bring the backward castes and Dalits under a larger umbrella.

While this balancing act was always part of Andhra politics,YSR managed two things. First,with his padyatra he may have projected Naidu’s focus on Cyberabad as a “pro-rich” idea and neglect of the hinterland. But with his “schemes” for the people like health insurance,he brought a larger constituency to support private business. Second,the eclectic political creature that YSR was,a Christian Reddy and also a Tirupathi (Lord Venkateswara) devotee,he could also,without saying as much,inspire confidence among the minorities and blunt the edge of forces such as the MIM. Votaries for Telangana (the TRS) too were sheepish as YSR ensured he paid attention and won elections there and kept temperatures down.

It is by forgetting this big idea of YSR that the Congress is making a grievous miscalculation,as it seeks to fix the problem of an alienated Jagan by just,unabashedly,wooing the Reddys or Jagan’s uncles. What they risk frittering away is the larger idea that is actually YSR’s legacy.

In its report,the Telangana committee may well not “recommend” anything. But all in all,what must make us all nervous is that an entirely new set of leaders (except Chandrababu Naidu) is on the firmament in the state,getting ready to handle Andhra’s oldest demand as it will inevitably swing into focus once again this month. Kiran Kumar Reddy may gain frequent flyer points rushing to Delhi in his hunt for a way out. But bagunnara,anyone?

seema.chishti@expressindia.com