report has given the BHP the ‘go ahead’. What is the road ahead for J&K? Seema Sridhar gives some answers

• What does the verdict say in response to each one of Pakistan’s objections?

The report vindicates the Indian position by extricating India from Pakistan’s allegation that the former has violated the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 (IWT), signed between the two countries on sharing of Indus waters. Design changes in the project being constructed over the Chenab in Doda district of J&K have been recommended. These include reductions in freeboard and pondage and increase in the height of the power intakes.

According to Pakistan, the designed height of the dam, 144.5 metres, resulted in a pondage of 37.50 MCM and this was 100 metres above the acceptable height for a run of the river project. Pakistan wanted the pondage level reduced to 6.22 MCM. The NE has arrived at a slightly lower value of 32.56 Million Cubic Metre (MCM) of maximum permissible pondage as against the earlier design by reducing the height of the freeboard at the head of the dam by 1.5 metres. As for raising the height of the intake “cills”, the higher the power intake tunnels, the lesser the chances of these being used for releasing huge quantities of stored water. Thus Pakistan’s concerns over issues of storage and flooding have been duly considered and cleared by recommending marginal changes in the earlier design well within the ambit of the provisions of the IWT.

However Pakistan’s objections over the use of gated spillways have been overruled by the neutral expert as it is one of the most important techniques to handle the problem of sedimentation which has been the bane of most Himalayan dams, both Indian and Pakistani, such as the Salal in J&K and the Mangla in PoK, reducing their storage capacity. The neutral expert has also given his approval for use of modern technology “for reasons of safety and optimum utilisation of waters”.

• What are the financial and legal implications of this outcome?

The financial implications of these modifications prove to be quite heavy as the project’s budget of over Rs 3500 crore has been spiraling owing to delays and floods. With the changes the costs would pile up to Rs 5000 crore. However, keeping in mind the long term benefits of this project, it seems to be a worthwhile investment for India and the MEA statement shows that India is all geared to go ahead with the project.

The technical aspects of the design changes have been looked into by the National Irrigation Research Institute of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT). Most significantly, India can now construct dams for the urgently required harnessing of hydel power in J&K. Several power projects in the state have been held up due to similar objections by Pakistan.

• How would it transform the current power crisis in J&K?

J&K lacks the critical infrastructure for harnessing its abundant resources. More than 15,000 MW of electricity could be generated within the state from the Chenab itself if proper plans are formulated and implemented. J&K has thus far not been able to benefit from the IWT as the east flowing rivers of Ravi, Beas and Sutlej over which India has consumptive rights flow through Himachal Pradesh. To meet the energy requirements of the state, harnessing the west flowing rivers of Indus, Chenab and Jhelum is of utmost importance. Against its requirement of over 1,600 mw, the state generates only about 450 mw.

J&K has a hydel power potential of over 20,000 mw but so far hardly 1500 mw of this potential has been exploited, both under state and Central schemes. The state faces a peak shortage of 27 per cent while it is about 7 per cent at the national level. The state has an annual expenditure of Rs 2000 crore on purchasing power from outside to meet its demands. Against the expenditure, the collections are less than Rs 300 crore, leading to a Rs 1700 crore deficit.

Several hydro-electric projects have been inordinately delayed. But these pale in comparison with the generating capacity of the BHP which is of 900 MW and promises to meet one third of the power requirements of J&K.

• What does it mean for the larger concerns of J&K?

The NE verdict on the BHP will hopefully set the ball rolling for other such projects to be implemented in the conflict ridden state. The decline in violence over the last year, increased transport and communication links across the LoC, trade linkages and the ongoing peace process would all materialise into something substantive for the people of the state if they are complemented by an increased pace of development. Addressing the current power situation holds the key to the development question in the region.

The writer is a research scholar at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi