Straws in the poll?

It is always dangerous to read too much into by-election results. But the magnitude of Lalu Prasad’s comeback calls into scrutiny the state of play in Bihar’s politics. This month’s by-elections had been called a semi-final because as many as 18 assembly seats were up for election and because they come just about a year before the state re-elects its legislative assembly. In alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP,Lalu’s RJD has taken nine of those seats,with the Congress getting two and the ruling JD(U)-BJP alliance keeping just five. Previously,a majority of these seats were with the JD(U)-BJP. But the possible significance of the by-elections derives equally from the fact that in this year’s Lok Sabha elections,the RJD-LJP could get just four of the 40 parliamentary seats,with the ruling alliance getting 32.

Lalu’s assertion of his relevance in Bihar’s politics poses questions for all other political parties in the state. Will Nitish Kumar,so far seen to be unshakeable,see this reversal as an impediment to the possibility of striking it alone in Bihar’s multi-party politics? Will the Congress,having got two seats this month and having rattled every other party by being seen to be making an overture to Nitish during the general elections,reassess Lalu’s worth and reverse its go-it-alone strategy? Will Paswan,believed to be wooed by the Congress for a merger with his LJP,now be tempted to in fact strengthen his pact with the RJD?

These questions spotlight the dangers of clubbing Bihar’s political dynamic with that of Uttar Pradesh,where all the big players see little long-term gain in emerging from their solitary corners. In UP,where the Congress especially has scented revival with the recent Lok Sabha results,the four main parties perceive costs in making seat adjustments with possible allies. Bihar has a more complicated electoral arithmetic. But Bihar is also different because,especially after Nitish Kumar’s convincing victory in the November 2005 assembly elections,an idea of the state’s possibilities has been deepened. Those charting their challenges after the dramatic by-election results would do right to do so within the framework of the development discourse that’s conquered Bihar.