Opinion Sunrise in Bihar

There are winds of change in India that can only further gladden the hearts of eternal optimists — and even bring cheer to the pessimists. Let us recount what has happened in India over just the last two weeks. For the first time in anyone’s memory,there is a beginning of accountability,and even the beginning of a crackdown,on corruption (as I,seemingly accurately,forecasted in ‘Business,not as usual’,IE,September 30). Ministers have been made to resign,inquiries have begun,individuals have been arrested,and even an honest PM has been rapped on the knuckles for not being more forthcoming on corruption. What is going on? Look no further east than Bihar. The election results are in and they are indicative of a huge paradigm shift in Indian politics. This is Bihar,where caste and the male vote held sway. Nitish Kumar’s alliance with the BJP has romped home with a what appears to be a 200-plus-seat win in an assembly with a total strength of 243 seats. Soon,the pollster-historians will inform you whether this is the largest win ever for any state or Lok Sabha elections. But the Rajiv Gandhi landslide win of 1984 might well end up paling in comparison. That victory of 415 seats out of 543 meant 76 per cent of seats were won; Nitish’s coalition might have won 85 per cent of seats. And let’s not forget Nitish’s ally,the BJP. It could even have outdone (marginally) Nitish’s own party,by winning close to 90 per cent of the seats it contested — 91 out of 102. (All these numbers are preliminary,s but near final.) Oh,yes,and what happened to the emerging Congress build-up in Bihar? It won nine seats last time and will be lucky to cross seven on this occasion. So what happened in caste-ridden Bihar? To be sure,there are some analysts (usually of the defeated Congress variety) who refuse to see the writing on the wall and talk about how “Nitish+” won (Nitish + BJP,that is) because of some new caste combinations! At the Congress rallies in Bihar — and as part of a peripatetic journalist+psephologist crowd I attended rallies of both Sonia and Rahul — the leaders pooh-poohed the so-called development programme of Nitish and argued,without shame,that the last time Bihar saw development was under Congress rule prior to 1980. I don’t know who their speechwriters are,but they should be fired not just for lies,but for incompetent lies. And if Sonia and/or Rahul write their own speeches,they should fire themselves,though I admit that that might be difficult to do. Nitish made only one forecast: that the Bihar election will be decided by the women’s vote. He claimed that these women will no longer be dictated by caste,or their husband’s preferences; they would vote for development. His forecast has come true: the electoral turnout,possibly for the first time,was higher for women than men. One of the reasons why Nitish was confident of the women’s vote was because he had done so much for development,and especially for the development of the girl child. While the Congress has been busily,and arrogantly,spending wasteful money on high corruption in the name of the poor,in,for example,programmes like NREGA (only 50 per cent of jobs claimed to have been created by the government seem to have actually been created according to NSS figures) Nitish started a cash-transfer scheme for girls. Rs 2000 was set aside for any girl that entered the ninth grade. This programme has been so successful that high school girl enrollment has nearly tripled since it started three years ago. Starting this year,the bicycle programme will also be extended to the boys. Nitish Kumar brought development to the poor and they rewarded him. The Congress has constantly tried to legislate morality and development,and has lost embarrassingly. There is a lesson in the results for all. For the Congress,the biggest loser,it is hoped that this would be a genuine wake up from its narcotic stupor. Narcotic because the self-assurance with which the Congress has strutted around since its victory in 2009 has lulled it into incompetence and worse. A lesson also for the BJP: development works,caste does not and nor does Hindutva,or religion,or outmoded nationalism. There are signs that the BJP is weaning itself away from the likes of the RSS and Shiv Sena. Maybe it knew a bit of the Bihar results before today. The BJP can proudly point to the fact that all of the best-run states in India are under its rule,singly or in alliance: Bihar,Gujarat,Madhya Pradesh. But it also needs to worry about the allegations of corruption in its own southern backyard,Karnataka. No matter how one looks at the Bihar results,the forecast is the same — India has irretrievably changed,and changed massively for the better. With the joint loss of Lalu and of the Congress,it will be difficult henceforth to believe that dynastic or feudal politics has much sway left in the new,young,and vibrant India.

The writer is chairman of Oxus Investments,an emerging market advisory and fund management firm