Swine flu: WHO doesn’t rule out level 6

The last big pandemic was the Hong Kong flu in 1968,when the virus killed an estimated one million worldwide. Prior to this,there was the Asian influenza of 1957 and in 1918-1919,the Spanish Flu resulted in 40-50 million deaths worldwide.

“It is no longer an animal virus as it doesn’t need a swine to spread. Instead,it has acquired the ability of human-to-human transmission,which makes it more dangerous,” said Dr Randeep Guleria,Professor of Medicine at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) and member of the joint monitoring group working on preparedness against the flu.

“The travel frequency over the years has increased,which means the spread of the virus could be more. In the 1918 pandemic,it took two years to reach different parts of the world. It came in waves. This time,nothing can be said as the virus is also evolving,” added Dr Guleria.

The WHO is monitoring the situation but experts say the impact of the virus cannot be ascertained as of now.

“It’s a new virus. Hence,it is not possible to figure out its severity,whether it is going to be virulent or mild. The pandemics of 1957 and 68 were milder than the one in 1918. As far as this virus is concerned,we need to get more information to figure out its severity,” said Dr J P Narain,Director,Communicable Diseases,WHO Regional Office.

Reaching level 6 would mean the “highest level of urgency”. “This would mean major social distancing. Schools will have to be closed down,it would require more aggressive screening,” Dr Guleria added.

If the WHO raises the pandemic threat alert to level 6 from the current level 5,companies will have to tell sick employees to stay home. Company officials will be asked to take a number of measures which include the appointment of a workplace pandemic coordinator.