I would contend that we (the US, Britain and India) have under-invested in understanding the Pakistani society. Describing Pakistan as an “international migraine” and wishing that it would go away is a cop-out. Pakistan is a large country, a legitimate state and a reservoir of talented human capital. It suffers from contradictions like many other countries. We need to deal with Pakistan not as a monolithic entity, but as a mosaic where some tiles are pro-Western, others pro-Chinese, some are Saudi clients, others prefer the open environment of the UAE, some believe in a universal Islamic Caliphate, others believe that even the present Pakistani state needs to be split up, many alternate between sentimental attachment to India and an inordinate fear of “encirclement” by India. Not spending time and effort in understanding the Pakistani society in granular detail results in our being “surprised”, “puzzled”, “disappointed”.

That all politics is local is an old adage. The great statesman Sir Mirza Ismail argued that the appropriate translation of the proverbial “politics of the parish pump” in English parlance would in our situation be the “politics of the village well”. Zardari is apparently part Baluchi and part Sindhi and of Shia ancestry, married into a Sindhi landlord family. In any event, he is not a Punjabi Sunni. On top of that, his interests are in the world of business, a far cry from the military’s concerns. Nawaz Sharif is a Punjabi Sunni and among politicians possibly most acceptable to the military despite personal animosity between him and Musharraf. The Pakistani army has over the years moved away from its elite Sandhurst roots. The army is one of the few places in Pakistan where the lower middle class can look for upward social mobility and individuals of ability without connections can jostle with the elite. It is not an accident that General Kayani is the son of a non-commissioned officer.

... contd.