With China offering talks on Tibet, and the Dalai Lama welcoming the proposal, it would seem a welcome breakthrough is at hand. Not so fast. Beijing and the Tibetan Government — in exile in Dharamsala — both need the talks, but may find it difficult to start them. Without some credible mutual reassurances, the ‘talks about talks’ may go nowhere. Beijing has sensed that failure to show political flexibility now could well ruin the Beijing Olympics. The Dalai Lama too recognises that this is Beijing’s most vulnerable moment and needs to make the most of it. Beyond that, there is little agreement on how to proceed.

Given the failure of the previous six rounds of talks during 2002-07 to produce any results, the Dalai Lama naturally wants result-oriented talks. Not surprisingly, the Dalai Lama’s positive reaction to the Chinese proposal on the proposed talks was hedged in reservations. He was quoted as saying, “We need to have serious talks about how to reduce the Tibetan resentment within Tibet,” he said. But a meeting aimed merely at “showing the world that they are having dialogue, then it is meaningless,” the Dalai Lama concluded.

The Dalai Lama also needs some political gestures from Beijing, including an end to the current harsh crackdown in Tibet. As the prime minister of the Tibetan Government in Exile, Samdhong Rinpoche, said, “the present circumstances in Tibet do not appear to be an appropriate platform for a meaningful dialogue.”

Having whipped up nationalist outrage against the Dalai Lama in the last few weeks and after calling him a “wolf in monk’s robes”, Beijing will find it hard to demonstrate the necessary good faith.

... contd.