In international relations, perhaps even more than in domestic politics, perceptions drive issues more than reality. There are now three different narratives in which the reference to Balochistan in the Indo-Pakistan joint statement are being placed. The narratives are not mutually exclusive. But for those of us who are not privy to intelligence information it is difficult to counter any of these narratives. (This is not the same thing as saying these are all correct. It is simply that you don’t have enough ammunition to counter any one of them.)

There is also a lot of disinformation, retrospectively constructed stories in the media. And the problem is that which narrative triumphs is already out of the hands for the government. Even if we are inclined to give the benefit of the doubt, the government already has a huge political problem. The issue is not whether the government is embarrassed. The issue is that if the government does not restore its credibility quickly it will have even less room for manoeuvre even when there is genuine progress.

Narrative 1: The Big Blunder Theory. This is the narrative of the opposition and much of the media. By mentioning Balochistan we, in one stroke, frittered away all our diplomatic advantages. A certain moral parity has been restored between India and Pakistan (we do Balochistan, they do Kashmir). We have opened the door for claims and counter claims. And it is not clear what we have got in return. As usual we have become emotional and engaged in the great Indian giveaway.

... contd.