The Beijing card

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s forthcoming trip to China is not just another visit from Islamabad to Beijing. It foregrounds the shift in the post-bin laden discourse engineered by Beijing to help Pakistan withstand the blows against its reputation and conduct. At a time when the international community is scrutinising Pakistan and raising unpleasant questions after Osama bin Laden’s safe house was discovered in the genteel environs of Abbottabad,the one country that has come out overtly in Islamabad’s (and Rawalpindi’s) defence is China. China has declared not only its sympathy for Pakistan but also its displeasure with the US raid that killed bin Laden and purportedly violated Pakistan’s sovereignty. Pakistan,Beijing specified,has sacrificed and suffered a lot in its efforts against terror.

Therefore,when Gilani begins his four-day China visit on May 17,behind the conspicuous economic agreements and cooperation on civilian nuclear energy,the strategic implications of the trip are evident. For,this is not just another turn in the Sino-Pak relationship,but the solidification of a new strategic alliance,pushing it beyond a longstanding “all-weather” friendship. It may be far-fetched — and premature — to suggest that Pakistan is in strategic defiance of the US,that it is betting on China long-term in the belief that US power in the region is on the wane. Nonetheless,the leaked contents of a meeting in Kabul in late April are revealing: during a visit to Afghanistan,Gilani offered Afghan President Hamid Karzai the choice between the US and the West on one hand and itself and China on the other. Gilani’s choice is believed to reflect the views of his army chief,General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. Even before the circumstances of bin Laden’s death raised questions about Pakistan’s commitment to regional security,Kayani made little secret that he has prioritised groundwork to increase Pakistan’s dominance in Afghanistan’s affairs,as the US prepares to lighten its military footprint in that country.

None of this should surprise. What does surprise is the drift in the Indian government on national security. The new great game pivoted over Afghanistan has serious security implications for India. It demands from New Delhi a more focused response — in addressing defence capabilities and in building international partnerships to bring stability,prosperity and equilibrium to the Af-Pak region. Hopefully,Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Afghanistan will galvanise more creative diplomacy.