Its shock troops are already out and this round of protests is not only likely to continue, it will become more vociferous. But the more substantive course of action for the PMLN would be to prevent the PPP from getting to the magic number to upset the political balance in the assembly which, while it stands suspended for two months, cannot be wished away or kept suspended for too long.

This is where the balance is held by the PMLQ even though that party itself is now not united. The Q-League knows that both sides will woo it. The question is: Which side of the fence will it choose?

Chances are that the PMLQ would opt for a new arrangement with the PPP. This is essentially what the PPP has relied on in playing its highly risky hand.

The logic of the move dictates it must win; the acceptance by the Sharifs to lose Punjab for a principled stand also means they cannot afford defeat or raise the white flag. The two sides are locked in mortal combat; one of them has to go down.

The PPP has made its move; it’s the PMLN’s turn now. The party has to catch the high tide or lose out on the opportunity to turn this moment of ostensible loss into an episode of political gain for itself. The Sharifs hope the sacrifice would translate into concrete gains.

That may work in the next election. But is the PMLN prepared to wait that long? How would it force the PPP into mid-term elections, a new political arrangement better reflective of what the voter wants? That would require effective street protests, enough pressure to lead the current arrangements to the tipping point.

... contd.