In 2002, this was the region hit hardest by the riots after the burning of the Sabarmati Express. Godhra was at the epicentre of the riots but the aftershocks were felt in the entire region. The election result that year was a resounding victory for the BJP, with Central Gujarat, a traditional Congress stronghold, also going to the party. The Congress’s tally of 34 had come down to 8, while the BJP’s shot up from 16 to 42.

In 2007, the script is different. It’s not clear whether the BJP will repeat its success or the Congress will return to power. What is clear is that both the parties will have to contain the rebellion within before fighting each other.

However different the poll battle may be this year, Hindutva remains the flavour of the campaign. But this time it comes in different shades. There is the BJP’s brand of Hindutva and then there is an anti-BJP one. The most surprising is the Hindutva that is throwing its weight behind the Congress as the sadhus take to campaigning for the party. The fight for Central Gujarat has now become personal with the circulation of a sex CD, targeting Gujarat Congress chief Bharat Solanki.

Seeing the importance of the region, a week before Gujarat went to the polls in its first phase, Chief Minister Narendra Modi paid a visit. His road-show went past the tribal areas in Dahod and Kalol. But Central Gujarat is more than just the tribal areas. It’s also the cosmopolitan Vadodara, the lush Charotar region with its tobacco farms and milk cooperatives. Central Gujarat is also home to the strong pro-Modi NRI lobby.

Despite giving the BJP crucial seats in 2002, the region is not represented in the Modi Cabinet. A fact that rebel BJP leader Nalin Bhatt, who is now with the BSP, never tires of repeating. “The BJP did a great injustice to Central Gujarat which gave it a great victory in 2002,” he alleges.

The BJP, meanwhile, can count on continued support from the voters of Vadodara city and from the Patels of Charotar region—the NRIs who belong to this region have sent the party a steady flow of dollars and over the years have invited Modi to the UK and the US a couple of times.

“Things have changed in the last five years. In rural areas it will be the candidates who matter, but the BJP can be assured of support from the towns and cities,” says Harbans Patel, a retired professor of political science in Anand.

The BJP too realises it can’t take votes for granted any more. “Gujarat is a pro-BJP state but things have changed very quickly in the past six months. But it is true that more than the party, it’s Modi who is our trump card,” said a BJP leader in Vadodara.

The Congress, meanwhile, is not saying much. “Let the results speak for themselves. Right now we don’t want to say anything except that we are working to win the polls,” says Bharat Solanki. Unfazed by the personal attack on him and with the support of the party, Solanki is busy making public appearances, something the BJP had not anticipated.

The result of the election here is difficult to predict but it’s easy to trace the shadow of the 2002 riots in the region. The majority of the 65 riot-affected constituencies is spread in Central Gujarat and with the riot trials fast turning against the BJP in the tribal belt as convictions in the riot cases begin, 2002 will leave its imprint on 2007.

Close fights

•Godhra: C K Raulji (Congress) vs Prabhatsinh Chauhan (BJP minister)

•Matar: Narhari Amin(Congress) vs Devsinh Chauhan (BJP)

•Pavi Jetpur: Mohan Rathwa(Congress) vs Jayanti Rathwa (BJP)

•Dabhoi: Siddharth Patel (Congress) vs Atul Patel (BJP)

• Waghodia: Jayesh Patel(Congress) vs Madhu Srivastava (BJP MLA)