• Central Asia Myth: Although Iran could be India’s gateway to Eurasia, Tehran today has returned to the pitiful slogan of self-reliance rather than emphasise regional and global economic integration. India’s natural corridors to Afghanistan and Central Asia are through Pakistan. If the US, instead of complaining against New Delhi-Tehran ties, can agree to overland trade between India and Afghanistan, Iran’s weight in New Delhi’s geopolitical calculus would be much less salient.

Looking ahead, India’s challenge in South West Asia is not about saving Iran from the United States, but protecting New Delhi’s mounting interests in the Arab Gulf.

Amidst the floundering American intervention in Iraq, the single most important regional trend is the unfolding Saudi rivalry with Iran. Thanks to the American empowerment of the Shia majority in Iraq, the Sunni Arab regimes are now determined to balance the growing Iranian influence in Baghdad.

In the new struggle between Riyadh and Tehran, Arabs and Persians, and the Sunni and Shia, you could bet your bottom dollar India will inevitably gravitate towards the former. India has barely 300 families living in Iran, while nearly five million Indians work in the Arab Gulf, who save and remit home billions of dollars. India’s trade with GCC is nearly six times larger than that with Iran and growing much faster.

Together the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council constitute India’s single biggest source of imported oil, one of the top destinations for India’s exports, and increasingly important source of foreign direct investment. India’s expanding defence ties with the Arab Gulf are far more consequential than the nominal security engagement with Iran.

... contd.