However, in both Delhi and West Bengal, the Left displayed an arrogance of power, blinded by the belief that Left bastions could not be stormed, especially since voting was never fair and clean, with electoral procedures subverted. Panchayat and municipal elections provided enough evidence this wasn’t the case, but the Left underestimated the extent of disenchantment, or believed it could be suppressed. With the Congress- Trinamool tie-up, what is significant is not just the magnitude of the Left’s decline, but its loss in key constituencies like Tamluk, Jadavpur and Barrackpore, believed to be unassailable. The Sachar Committee documented the status of Muslims, reinforced by local developments too. The Muslim, ST and rural vote has now turned against the Left and it has been reduced to its original support base in the industrial-cum-trade union belt. 2009 was a semi-final; extrapolated, with the mahajot in place, the Left is certain to be dislodged in the finals, the assembly elections of 2011.

Vote shares vary in individual constituencies. But on average, in local body elections, the Left’s vote share was 45 per cent, with 35 per cent for the Trinamool, 10 per cent for the Congress and 10 per cent for the BJP. 2009 should therefore have been touch-and-go. However, it wasn’t, and the Left has been convincingly trounced. There was thus a swing away from the Left, particularly in rural Bengal. In urban Bengal, there was still cynicism about whether the Left could ever be dislodged, which is why prominent intellectuals preferred to sit on the fence rather than take sides.

... contd.