They will also tell you that there’s no sign of a wave this time. As a result, even the BJP is constrained to play it both ways: it has given the ticket to a riot-accused but his campaign harps on “development”.

“It’s a 50:50 fight this time,” hedges Miteshbhai Patel, a reporter with a local newspaper and self-professed BJP supporter.

Why did the tide turn so dramatically in favour of the BJP in 2002 in Central Gujarat’s tribal belt? And what explains the apparent waning of the saffron surge five years later?

At the neat, red-roofed complex of the Adivasi Academy, off the road from Jetpur to Chhota Udaepur, the group of post-graduate students who come to the Academy from across the tribal belt is articulate and forceful. They tell a story of seduction and abandonment.

Five years ago, according to this narrative, through rumours and CDs, the tribals were instigated to wreak violence on the Muslims, most of whom originally belong to Godhra. In this, the BJP was helped by the groundwork done over almost a decade by the RSS, be it through the distribution of trishuls or Ganesh idols. In fact, Ganesh puja was uncommon in these parts but over the last five years or so, Ganesh Chaturthi has become one of the two festivals celebrated with the most money and fervour; the other is Navratri.

But after the communal violence of 2002 was over, the story goes, the Adivasi became the fall guy. “People here were exhorted to commit violence as ‘Hindus’. But suddenly, after the violence, we were back to being ‘Adivasi’. The media gave us a bad name, and the BJP left us to our devices,” says Arjun Rathwa. The accused in a large number of cases that have been re-opened because of the Supreme Court’s intervention are tribals. Some are out on bail, but many still crowd Sabarmati Jail.

... contd.