Militarily, the Pakistan Army has achieved swift success in securing the Swat region from the Taliban. Its leadership appears greatly satisfied with the conduct of operations and congratulatory messages are flying quick and fast; it is being speculated that, with Swat secured, operations in Waziristan will begin. The US, too, appears pleased. Aid is being pledged as reward: Holbrooke has just committed to $200 million. And there are hints of greater US patronage on the assumption that Pakistan will continue to operate in synch with the US Afghanistan-Pakistan policy.

However, a closer look at what is happening on Pakistan’s western front would reveal a worrying gap between the apparent and the real. Some battles may have easily been won but winning this war may turn out to be frightfully difficult and extremely painful.

Take a look at the numbers for internal displacement. The 1971 figures (population-to-refugee ratio) that led to the creation of Bangladesh pale in comparison. Within a fortnight of the operation, the refugee figures swelled to over 2 million — almost half of the total population of the area.

Conditions in the refugee camps are appalling: shortage of water, extreme heat, poor sanitation, no schools for children and no source of income. The IDPs’ homes have been destroyed, as also their crops, due to the indiscriminate and heavy shelling by the military. The Rs 25,000 compensation being offered is woefully inadequate — and does not easily reach refugees.

What about the Taliban? Assessments indicate that the region had close to 7000 Taliban militants. The army claims to have eliminated over 1000. The rest, it is reported, have either melted into the refugee camps or have moved to the hills or to other districts, retaining their capacity to strike at will almost anywhere in Pakistan. The attacks in Lahore, Peshawar and now Islamabad confirm this.

... contd.