As the electorate sealed their verdict in Phase I of the Gujarat polls on Tuesday, the focus is now shifting to north Gujarat with its 33 seats in the districts of Patan, Mehsana, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, and Gandhinagar.

This region to which Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi belongs, is also the political backyard of Congress stalwarts Shankersinh Vaghela and state party chief Bharatsinh Solanki.

Facing a downslide in Saurashtra, the ruling BJP hopes to make some compensatory gains here, riding on the controversial ‘Sujalam Sufalam’ scheme—the canal project for distribution of narmada water—and on the new highways built here in the past five years.

Regarding caste, while the BJP draws some level of comfort from the fact that this is the area of Kadva and not Leuva Patels (the community that is rebelling against Modi), the Congress is equally confident given the predominance of Thakors, tribals, and Kshatriyas here. These are the communities that constituted the bedrock of the party’s KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) combination in its heyday in Gujarat, and both Solanki and Vaghela wield enormous clout in the region.

While the Congress got a headstart in May this year by bringing party chief Sonia Gandhi to a well attended farmers’ rally in Mehsana, the BJP has deftly worked on caste combinations and the cooperatives in the area.

Among the keenly fought and watched contests from the region would be that of Education Minister Anandiben Patel from Patan city. In neighbouring Siddhpur, former Narmada Minister Jainarayan Vyas is locked in a close fight with Congress whip Balwantsinh Rajput. Then there is Mahendrasinh Vaghela, son of Union Textiles Minister Shankersinh Vaghela, from Meghraj in Sabarkantha. Having recently joined the BJP following a compromise with Modi, Vipul Chaudhary, is contesting from Bhiloda seat in Sabarkantha.

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