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The final McMahon Line

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  • Ajey Lele
    In the ’50s, Chairman Mao Zedong complained that China could not even shoot a potato into space. Hu Jintao’s China has come some distance since then: on September 27 a Chinese astronaut went outside his vessel to walk in space, China becoming in the process only the third country in the world to conduct a successful spacewalk.

    China, naturally, has used this achievement with its customary ability to shore up domestic support for its programme and for the government. Chinese television broadcast live the takeoff the Shenzhou 7 spacecraft from the Jiuquan satellite launch centre in Gansu province on September 25 and it subsequently broadcast, also live, the 13-minute spacewalk by the mission’s commander Zhai Zhigang. Live coverage is not easy to organise; it demonstrates, among other things, the professionalism and competence of China’s scientific community.

    Apart from its technological and domestic dimensions this mission has international political dimensions as well. The success of this launch allows China to remain in the centre of global attention. For the last few months the world has been focused on China, and full of admiration for its organisational ability; first, because of their sumptuous organisation of the Olympics in August and then the Paralympics. Raising its international profile, stirring national pride, has benefits in terms of the Chinese Communist Party’s control of its own population. The party is expected to parade the astronauts after they return, at national day celebrations on October 1.

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    The present Chinese space progamme is often mentioned as a mix of a Russian help and Chinese hard work; though it would be inappropriate to minimise the contribution to this success of the Chinese intelligence agencies, and their ability to organise technological espionage. Few hard facts are known; but just a day before this launch the FBI arrested a Chinese-born physicist in Virginia, on charges of illegally exporting space launch technical data and services to China beginning in January 2003.

    The Shenzhou 7 spacecraft, launched aboard a 19-story Long March 2F, marked China’s third manned spaceflight and comes a mere five years after its initial 2003 lift-off. This riskiest of spacewalk was monitored and supported by five satellite tracking ships: four ships in the Pacific Ocean and one in the Atlantic and by space telemetry network supported by some 20 terrestrial surveying stations.

    The Shenzhou has no space station to dock with, but China intends to remedy that; it intends to build its own space station in the very near future; Shenzhou missions are expected to start work on the project, beginning with the very next launch: Shenzhou 8 is expected to carry a small “space laboratory” with it as payload. Shenzhou 9 will go to the space as an unmanned mission, and will dock with this laboratory, carrying additional material; and subsequently, Shenzhou 10 is planned to be launched with three astronauts on board who will complete a small space station complex. All this is scheduled to happen within the next 12 to 18 months.

    While these demonstrate China’s determination to extend its space programme, which brings it political and scientific benefits, what is very important to remember is that China’s space programme has also a very major military dimension. The world was shocked when, in January 2007, the space programme in combination with the military tested an anti-satellite weapon. The international community correctly interpreted this as a clear indication that it would not hesitate to weaponise outer space. Many in the world, including India, expressed regret through official channels about the test, but it appears that China has not been particularly bothered by the diplomatic firestorm. Today, as domestic problems multiply — the uprisings in the Uyghur and Tibet, problems with melamine in milk — successes like this are useful to demonstrate, both domestically and internationally, that China is among the first rank of powers in the use and development of advanced technology.

    In Asia, China, Japan and India could be described as major space powers. All of them have many similarities in their space agenda, though there is little doubt that China and Japan could be said to be ahead of India by a few years in this field. India is doing well particularly in sectors like remote sensing and telecommunication, and next month launches a mission to the moon, something China has already accomplished — though a mere year back. India is also planning to send a human into space, but here again it will need a few more years. It could be argued that India is doing reasonably well in the space arena and has a robust space programme; but where India is definitely lagging behind is in the arena of defensive use of outer space. China has succeeded in deriving various military benefits out of its space programme. As Indians brag about the country’s status as a de facto nuclear weapon power, reticence about its military space programme is very puzzling, particularly when its neighbour is emerging as a major space power both in the civilian and the military sectors.

    The writer researches non-standard security threats at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, Delhi express@expressindia.com

    India is not behind ChinaBy: Abhishek Dwivedi | 01-Oct-2008 Reply | Forward NASA, ESA and ISRO protested China's targeting of a satellite not because of fears of a new military threat, but because the debris generated by the blast can collide and damage other satellites. ISRO's chief Mr. G Madhavan Nair has publicly stated that India too can easily replicate China's test, but it chooses not to be irresponsible. India is actually ahead of China and even Russia in the field of remote sensing satellites, which can also be used for espionage. China is often forced to rely on foreign nations for remote sensing data. Another area which India is actively pursuing is hypersonic vehicles, of which ISRO has already conducted a successful ground test. So, it would still be premature to write-off India in the military use of space, compared to China.
    The final McMahon LineBy: S Kiran | 30-Sep-2008 Reply | Forward Thanks Mr. Lele, a nice writeup.
    space technologyBy: nike | 30-Sep-2008 Reply | Forward Deeds not words !
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