While the support of 32 SP MPs, excluding those who defied whips, was very crucial for the survival of the UPA Government during the July 22 trust vote last year, after about 60 member Left decided to vote against the Government, the ruling UPA is not afraid of the SP’s threats given the massive attrition from the Opposition ranks since the trust vote.

The Prime Minister’s motion expressing confidence of the House in the Council of Ministers was carried with 275 votes in favour and 256 against, amounting to a majority by 19 votes, at a time when the effective strength of the Lok Sabha stood at 541, excluding two vacancies, one member not being allowed to vote under the court’s direction and the Speaker’s vote.

As against only two vacancies in the Lok Sabha at that time, there are now 33 seats vacant in the Lok Sabha due to disqualifications, resignations and death of members.

The BJP’s numbers in the Lok Sabha have declined from an effective strength of 128 at the time of trust vote to 114 — a clean decline of 14 members. In fact, it is a decline of 24 seats from the BJP’s original strength of 138 after the 2004 polls.

Also, all the five JD(U) MPs have resigned from the Lok Sabha in protest against the anti-north Indian violence in Maharashtra.

Recently, seven BJP members had decided to resign from their Lok Sabha membership after they got elected to the state assemblies during the recently concluded elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh.

In addition, while the Left parties did not hesitate to vote alongside the BJP in the trust vote, despite their strong objection to the BJP, the SP may not cast its lot with the BJP ahead of general elections given its minority support base in Uttar Pradesh.

So, despite jitters with the Congress over seat-sharing and handling of cases against SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, it is the SP that’s in a catch-22 situation.