At One level, the war of words, and worse, that has erupted over Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi’s comments against UP Chief Minister Mayawati in a speech in Moradabad on Wednesday frames the coarsening of political debate. But the excessive display of firepower on all sides — the Mayawati government arrested Joshi, slapping her with various sections of the IPC as well as the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act 1989; both sides have charged each other with the torching of Joshi’s residence by masked men in Lucknow; and Parliament has been adjourned on the issue — showcases another hard and compelling reality: From Assembly polls 2007 to Lok Sabha polls in 2009, the contest for Uttar Pradesh has become really close.

And, in the run-up to the 2012 Assembly polls in the state, the fight is primarily between the BSP and Congress.

The BSP is still the largest party in UP — though it fell short of its own ambition and others’ hype in 2009, its vote share of 27.4 per cent has fallen only marginally below its vote share in the 2007 Assembly polls when it formed a single-party majority government in the state after nearly two decades. But despite the fact that Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP also basically held its fort in 2009 — in spite of predictions of a rout, it won the highest number of seats, 23 — it is the Congress that is fast becoming the other pole in the state.

It is not just that the Congress vote share has leaped to 18.3 per cent from an all-time low of 8.5 per cent in the 2007 Assembly polls, rehabilitating the party in Hindi heartland politics after two decades. What undoubtedly worries the BSP more is a trend highlighted by the 2009 poll results.

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