Of course, many of these conclusions, they concede, depend greatly on the assumed shadow prices and the uncertainties surrounding technological change. Nonetheless the assessment is contrary to the prevalent public perception that China’s economic growth is resulting primarily from activities that damage air quality and water purity.

Population growth, productivity trends, and changing technology paradigms can dramatically alter these conclusions, however. Vinod Khosla’s suggestions at the conference that technology will significantly alter the cost and availability of alternative fuels, and country energy models like those for India, suggest a basic rethink of the models as well as great uncertainty. Also, one area which the analysis does not consider is that even while China’s economic growth may be sustainable, its implications for the global economy needed closer examination. Pollutants know no boundaries.

The rich analysis, however, is well-worth replicating for a large demographic entity like India, which will be a major energy guzzler and, by conventional wisdom, a big polluter with similar consequences. Certainly, while it is not easy to replicate this analysis, leaving out India would leave this study incomplete. Uncertainties aside, however, energy, its security, its sustainable use, and the quest for alternative, affordable energy forms to enhance productivity sustainably for the long run is at the heart of current geopolitics. In focusing on these issues, the Stanford conference has made a worthwhile contribution.

write to nk.singh@expressindia.com