The final and decisive round of the PGA Championship in mid-August unfolded in a manner few had predicted. Tiger Woods, the American who firmly occupies the top spot in world rankings, lost his lead and came in a disappointing second. Padraig Harrington, the defending champion and arguably Europe’s best golfer, was in contention until he scored a quintuple bogey 8 on a par-3 hole. And the unheralded Y.E. Yang of South Korea, ranked 110th in the world, came from behind to win. In other words, America faded, Europe collapsed, and Asia emerged.

These trends should sound familiar. Asia is coming out of the economic crisis relatively unscathed; the region as a whole is likely to grow this year by 5 per cent, while China booms at 8 per cent. The US economy, meanwhile, continues to contract; growth rates won’t turn positive until later this year at least, and even then any improvement will be modest. More golf courses closed than opened in the United States in 2008. Europe is struggling even more. Europe was at the core of 20th-century history; it will not be so in the 21st. Harrington’s recent showing is a harbinger.

Golf, in fact, provides more insight into politics and economics than most people realise. Years ago, columnist Thomas Friedman propounded the ‘Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention’, namely that countries with McDonald’s franchises don’t fight one another. (Alas, some do—Russia and Georgia, Israel and Lebanon—but Friedman’s observation is still useful.) Big Macs, however, are not the only indicator worth noting. Countries that have numerous golf courses tend to be friendlier toward the US. Governments closing golf courses tend to be the most anti-American of all. Think of it as the fairway theory of history.

... contd.