Washington clock

As the American military surge in Afghanistan puts the Taliban on the defensive, Washington has explained the linkage between the short term and the long in the Obama administration’s Af-Pak strategy.

In an important reflection on the war in Afghanistan, the US defence secretary, Robert Gates has said that the American people are tired of the war in Afghanistan and will not support a prolonged occupation of that country.

Sections of the Pakistan press have interpreted this to mean that the US strategic commitment to Afghanistan is of limited duration and Islamabad must prepare for the withdrawal of the American troops in the not too distant future.

Many American analysts too have criticised this approach as defeatist. In signalling the desire for an early exit, they say, the Pentagon undermines the very prospect of its success.

If the Afghan Taliban and its Pakistani friends are convinced that the US troops will leave sooner than later, they will have every incentive to ride through the current American surge and avoid any interim political settlement.

This reading of the Gates’ interview to the Los Angeles Times is right; but only in part. It is important to note the secretary’s observation that Washington will review its Afghan strategy next summer.

The Obama administration might be able to sustain domestic political support for the war in Afghanistan, Gates believes, only if the current military campaign can produce a visible turn around in the ground situation.

“If we can show progress, and we are headed in the right direction, and we are not in a stalemate where we are taking significant casualties, then you can put more time on the Washington clock,” Gates said.

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