Russia redux

In scrapping the plans to deploy missile defence systems in Poland and the Czech Republic last week, US President Barack Obama may have brought down American political stock in Eastern Europe, where the post-Soviet regimes have relied on Washington for their security. The US losses in Eastern Europe might be worth it, if Obama’s attempt to’re-set’ relations with Russia produces gains elsewhere, in regions that matter more to him at this juncture.

India will surely be interested in finding out if the new US-Russian rapprochement will lead to their cooperation in the Great Game territory — Iran, Central Asia and the Af-Pak region.

After September 11, 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin had strongly supported the US war on terror in Afghanistan and American military presence in Central Asia. As Washington continued to treat Moscow with condescension, expanded the Western military alliance, NATO, into Eastern Europe, and promoted colour revolutions to undermine Russian influence in the former Soviet republics, a disappointed Putin distanced himself from Washington and drew closer to Beijing.

The renewed chill between Washington and Moscow has tended to complicate India’s diplomacy in many areas. If the US and Russia construct a measure of bilateral understanding on regions of interest to us, Delhi’s own room for manouevre will significantly improve.

Above all, an American strategy to stabilise the Af-Pak region has a better chance of succeeding with Russian support than without it. US-Russian strategic coordination on Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia does not automatically follow from the latest moves on missile defence. It might certainly need Western recognition of a Russian sphere of influence in Eurasia. The enduring Western tradition of Russo-phobia is a major political obstacle.

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