There is a distinct possibility of Nato and US troops pulling out of Afghanistan in the not too distant future. The country may come under control of the Taliban. These are reasons for concern for the neighbouring countries. India must think about its options.

First, the Central Asian Republics (CAR). During the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan was happy to do business with them. Presumably they would not be unduly concerned unless President Noorsultan Nazarbayev fears he will be toppled by an Islamic surge, a strong possibility if one looks at the history of the region. Uzbekistan has a strong Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Tajikistan and Kyrgiz Republic are equally susceptible to an Islamic extremist movement to destabilise them. Any Islamic movement presently does not affect Kazakistan, floating on oil and gas and enjoying a growth rate of 10 per cent plus of GDP, but the government is concerned about the domino effect of such a movement in the southern neighbours. The educated estimate of hydrocarbon reserves in the CAR is supposedly next to Saudi Arabia. Hence the concern of Russia, China, India and the West.

Iran has a deep contempt for the Taliban. Indeed the Pashtuns are generally looked down upon in Iran, whereas Tajiks and Uzbeks are acceptable. An unstable and extremist Sunni regime can be a constant source of concern for Iran.

Russia has been bleeding in Chechnya for a long time. A Taliban rule in Afghanistan will give a boost to the insurgency in Chechnya. Besides, Russia has a strong strategic interest in all the countries of CAR. Let us look at China. North Western China is commonly referred to as Eastern Turkmen, its ethnic population is known as the Uighur Muslims. Due to continuous exploitation of the area by Beijing, there is unrest amongst the Uighur Muslims. In fact, a number of members of the Al Qaida are from Uighur stock. If Afghanistan was to go the Taliban way, it is only a matter of time before the incipient Uighur movement gains strength. Finally, western countries will feel the heat of Islamic terror most if the Taliban and Al Qaida were to return to Afghanistan.

... contd.