The heir,the apparent

Modi draws similar adulation from BJP workers. At a public rally in Bangalore in the run-up to the Assembly elections,BJP workers,frantically clamouring “Modi,Modi”,would start heaping abuse on cameramen whenever any of them blocked Modi’s view even for an instant. As L K Advani made a last-ditch attempt to block Modi’s anointment as election campaign committee chief at the Goa national executive,Modi’s supporters did not spare even the party’s Bhishma Pitamah as they staged demonstrations outside his residence in Delhi.

While the jury is still out on who would score better in a presidential-style contest like in the US,the Indian parliamentary system,with all its complexities,offers an even contest to both and will measure them on various parameters. About 10 months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections,both are faced with challenges within and outside their respective organisations and their success would depend on how they respond to them.

Contrasting images

“Modi is not a problem for the BJP only,but for the entire country. Rahulji,on the other hand,is an asset to the party and the country. Our leader has travelled from Kashmir to Kanyakumari and has been welcomed everywhere,but Modi is shunned by foreign countries and is not welcome even in many states in India,” said AICC general secretary

B K Hariprasad.

The senior Congress leader was apparently referring to the stigma of the post-Godhra riots that has stuck to the Gujarat Chief Minister,despite all his attempts to project himself as a ‘development man’. “We will not raise (the issue of) the 2002 riots. Let the Congress raise it. We will be happy if that happens because we want the message to percolate down to our voters—can 16 per cent (Muslim) voters decide the country’s prime minister?” said a BJP general secretary. Another party general secretary echoed his view.

A lot of backroom thinking and planning has gone into Modi’s image-building: that he is a ‘tough and decisive’ administrator like Sardar Patel,a ‘development man’ like Atal Behari Vajpayee,and a modern,social,media-savvy leader who understands the aspirations of the youth. Even as he showcases his agenda of governance,Modi has refused to apologise for the post-Godhra carnage and wouldn’t wear a skull cap offered to him by a Muslim cleric.

Congressmen may think that what worked in Gujarat may not work in the rest of the country,but Modi expects his larger-than-life image to transcend all other considerations. As he takes over as the BJP’s campaign committee chief,there is a clear attempt to emerge as a pivot of anti-Congressism.

“We will leave no stone unturned for Congress Mukt Bharat Nirman (or Congress-free ‘Bharat Nirman’,the Congress’s rural India campaign). They ask people to believe Bharat Nirman par haq hai mera,but I think Bharat Nirman par shaq hai mera. Shaq hai mera,” was Modi’s campaign message for party workers in Goa.

On the other hand,the image Rahul has crafted for himself is varied: an angry young man with a designer stubble determined to ‘revolutionlise’ politics and ‘cleanse’ the system that has nourished him and his family; a ‘saint-politician’ who has no penchant for power; and a ‘seeker of truth’ who spends nights in the huts of Dalits and Adivasis to understand the problems of India.

A ‘believer in clean politics’,he wouldn’t castigate any opposition leader,whatever the provocation. Congress strategists believe that this image of an unconventional politician would appeal to the youth,even though he won’t reveal his views on the real issues concerning them. His close aides have been instructed not to open their mouth,be it on his trips abroad or his telephonic conversation with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif or his views on any issues,controversial or otherwise.

Rahul’s name has been frequently invoked by ministers to oppose development projects in the name of environment and their claim appeared to have been validated when he travelled to Niyamgiri Hills in Orissa to stall Vedanta’s bauxite mining project.

“It is true that he is almost obsessed about winning back the support of Dalits and Adivasis,but it is wrong to say that he is anti-development or anti-economic reforms. Didn’t he publicly support FDI in multi-brand retail? Didn’t he reach out to captains of industries recently? There is a lot of misunderstanding about his worldview and you may hold us responsible for this,” said a Congress leader.

Modi’s challenges

The Gujarat Chief Minister likes to be in full control,blowing away anything and anyone who comes in the way. There is a long list of BJP veterans—Keshubhai Patel,Shankersinh Vaghela,Kashiram Rana,Suresh Mehta,the late Haren Pandya,et al—who fell out with him only to find themselves on the political margins. His ministers had to confine themselves to their offices and constituencies as Modi would take all policy decisions and take it upon himself to inaugurate flyovers,laboratories,ward offices,civic centres,and gardens. Cabinet meetings are on predictable lines with few making any dissent note,inside or outside.

This obsession to be in control may come in Modi’s way when he moves from Ahmedabad to Delhi and sets out to win new friends within his party and outside. Unlike in the Congress where any voice of dissent against the High Command could result in an immediate and unquestioned ouster from the party,in the BJP,a Yashwant Sinha could demand his party president Nitin Gadkari’s resignation (over the controversy surrounding the latter’s Purti Group) and get away with it. Advani can accuse his junior party colleagues of being dictated by “personal agenda” and still remain the party patriarch. In the Congress,this privilege is allowed only to the Nehru-Gandhi scion,who has been publicly lambasting the system developed and nurtured by his mother and Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

While Modi commands the loyalty of most party workers across the country,he can ill afford to demand the same from party stalwarts in states who are mass leaders in their own right,be it Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan or Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh or even Gopinath Munde in Maharashtra.

Chouhan and Modi were closeted in a Marriott Hotel room in Goa for about 45 minutes on the eve of the latter’s elevation. Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh had invited Modi to address a public rally in his own constituency before the Naxal attack in May. While they seek to reach out to their Gujarat counterpart,these CMs would be keenly watching his next move. Advani’s decision to withdraw his resignation from party posts at the RSS chief’s behest was only a tactical retreat—though under compulsion—to recoup and regroup.

Besides,there are other challenges to tackle. How will Modi convert his unquestioned popularity among party cadres into mass acceptance outside Gujarat? How to convince the electorate outside Gujarat about his model of development in the state? How to extend his popularity among the urban middle class to rural areas? How to assuage the concerns of the BJP’s present and potential allies about his brand of politics? And,can he stop blowing his own trumpet (as he again did in Goa) and start giving credit to governance models of other BJP leaders such as Chouhan,Raman Singh,Goa CM Manohar Parrikar,and of allies in NDA-ruled states?

Faced with these challenges,Modi would have to recast his style of functioning,be more accommodating and take everybody on board. The big question therefore is,will Modi stoop to conquer?

Modi’s big strength is his organisational skill marked by meticulous planning down to the booth level. Amit Shah,his confidant and party general secretary in-charge of UP,gave a glimpse of it during his recent tour of the state. “Do not be concerned about winning Lok Sabha seats but focus on winning the booth. Once we win all the booths,we will automatically win Lok Sabha seats,” was Shah’s message to UP leaders. He asked the state unit to follow the Gujarat model of collecting a minimum of Rs 1,000 from every booth to generate in each contributor a sense of association with the party.

Modi believes in aggression marked by a no-holds-barred,personalised diatribe against his political opponents. At a meeting of national office-bearers and state unit chiefs last April,he had exhorted them to generate “hatred” against the ruling Congress and its leadership. “He had exhorted us to fuel such hatred against the Congress and its leadership among the electorate that they do not even think of voting for them,” said a party general secretary present at the meeting that day.

He took them by surprise by praising the Election Commission’s initiative to provide voter slips in advance to enhance voters participation. “His suggestion was to pro-actively participate in the EC exercise to clean up the electoral roll so that our supporters do not miss out on voting,” said a party spokesperson.

As for Modi’s image as a divisive leader who will not be acceptable to other NDA partners,his supporters are not worried. “Nobody is expecting him to get us 272 seats. We expect him to cross the 182-mark achieved by Vajpayee and everybody will flock to us,” said a BJP leader.

Rough road for Rahul

As the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family,Rahul does not need to exert his control and authority but still feels encumbered by the “system” in the Congress,said sources. Since his appointment as vice-president last January,he has presided over a series of meetings with AICC and PCC office-bearers but does not seem to have made much headway as is evident from the leadership’s dithering on the AICC reshuffle. But he has not shied away from showing he is the boss. He blasted Delhi PCC chief J P Agrawal for complaining against Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit but gave a patient hearing to Madhya Pradesh PCC chief Kantilal Bhuria on more than one occasion as he launched a tirade against Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia. Pratap Singh Bajwa was appointed Punjab Congress chief but within days,much to his dismay,he was hemmed in with four vice-presidents appointed at Rahul’s behest.

Like Modi,Rahul also wants to focus on building the organisation down to the booth level,but has not had much success so far. Frustrated after the party’s dismal show in the UP Assembly elections,Rahul decided to change the organisational structure by appointing young zonal chiefs such as Jitin Prasada and R P N Singh. Within a year,though,he changed them all.

“He has been appointing new PCC chiefs in states and planning to induct new faces in the AICC. This would be his way of getting around party veterans and developing a parallel leadership that would be more responsive to his vision for the party,” said a senior Congress leader. “Elections are round the corner but he seems to be bogged down by the sheer enormity of the goal he has set for himself. One still does not know what he wants,” said another party functionary.

Rahul’s much-trumpeted appeal among the youth has not been validated by electoral results so far. He may have to go beyond rhetoric and present a credible agenda to the youth to draw them to the Congress. He has not taken on the role of being the flag-bearer of the UPA—warts and all—except for routinely enumerating its flagship programmes and proposed welfare schemes. Rahul will have to spell out his future agenda for governance and wholeheartedly espouse economic reforms if the Congress has to retain its hold in big cities and towns as it did in 1999.

The Congress may be dismissive about Modi as a challenge,but unless Rahul accepts it and comes out with an alternative agenda,the challenger—or the pretender as the Congress would have us believe—could run away with the trophy.