Opinion The Karnataka prophecies

Assembly elections don’t really matter,say the losers of all state elections. Reflect back on the BJP’s successes in three assembly polls in November 2003,which had prompted the NDA to bring forward the general elections. We can all clearly recall what happened in the general elections that ended in May 2004. So,could Karnataka 2013 offer clues for 2014?

Karnataka,with 224 assembly seats and 28 Parliament seats,has often been the opposite of a bellwether state. But this time,with the two main national parties and a serious third party in the fray,it mirrors the national faultlines. It is also a litmus test for the general elections,because “corruption” has been a prominent issue in the state,leading to the departure of its former chief minister,B.S. Yeddyurappa. Its durability as an election issue could be tested here.

In the heyday of Indira Gandhi,Karnataka saw a dynamic chief minister,Devraj Urs,who came to power in 1972. Not belonging to the dominant Vokkaliga or Lingayat community,his politics were broader than just winning either of the two influential castes. Under him,politics became a matter of bringing together caste alliances and other interests. His land reforms and grooming of a wide section of the present Karnataka leadership ensured that the state voted for the Congress even after 1977,when most parts of India rejected Indira Gandhi. It was Urs who offered Indira Gandhi Chikmagalur in 1978,as a comeback constituency. It proved to be the run-up to Delhi. In later years,when the NDA ruled Delhi,Karnataka was happy with S.M. Krishna. Yet,after the UPA came to the Centre,the Janata Dal (Secular) and then the BJP have found favour with Karnataka voters.

Unlike the four other big assembly elections to follow this year — all expected to be straightforward bipolar contests — Karnataka’s two-party equation is disrupted by a powerful third element,the JD(S). Known to have impacted results in the past,the JD(S) is no pushover and it is unclear whether it will enter into an understanding with a larger party.

The state BJP was badly hit by Yeddyurappa’s departure and his setting up of a parallel party,the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). Yeddyurapa appears to have one goal — to demonstrate his utility to the BJP. Thus,he has a deep interest in his former party’s misfortune. The BJP’s spectacular campaign had been spearheaded by Yeddyurappa over the years. His loss will weaken any pitch the party makes to return to power. Both the JD(S) and the KJP,if not making the contest four-cornered,will test both big parties for their ability to make alliances,offer concessions to smaller but crucial players,or plough ahead on their own. This would be useful practice for 2014.

The corruption issue affected Yeddyurappa’s government,his own political fortunes and his friends in the mining industry. The Lokayukta report triggered off the crisis in part,offering a disturbing picture of crony capitalism and reflecting the political influence of the mining mafia in several parts of the state. In this case,the BJP was in the line of fire. But the same issues have dramatically changed the landscape for the UPA at the national level. So how the electorate responds to “corruption” in the state may shed light on how it will respond in the general elections. Also,how the Congress is able to mine this as an issue,to use an unfortunate pun,in a virtually four-cornered contest,could be a precursor of things to come in 2014.

This election may also offer a template for neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. Here,in two general elections,the Congress under YSR Reddy seemed invincible. But after his premature death,the party’s own successes went against its future prospects. Its inability to “manage” YSR’s son,Jaganmohan Reddy,meant that it alienated itself from the memory of the person who had brought it to power. Yeddyurappa was no YSR,but his centrality to the BJP’s fortunes and his subsequent rift with the party seem to parallel the Andhra story. The bearer of YSR’s legacy,his son Jaganmohan,the head of the YSR Congress,is presently cooling his heels in jail on corruption charges. So,in Yeddyurappa’s fortunes minus the party,there could be a tale for how the “YSR factor” can be expected to fare.

The campaign for Karnataka is interesting to observe. It could be the first test case of Narendra Modi’s appeal outside his state. The choice of the BJP’s new national executive has led to some conclusions about the kind of politics the BJP wants to go back to. Several elements in Karnataka help communal positioning of all kinds. A large and influential minority is one of them. The BJP cannot bank on Lingayat consolidation alone,with Yeddyurappa gone. The party may be seen trying out the Amit Shah or Varun Gandhi style of campaigning,to test its efficacy outside the Hindi belt. Its campaign could indicate how it wants to be seen nationally,as an alternative to the UPA.

Tamil Nadu and Kerala are admired for showing the radical way out of social oppression and dealing with the caste question. But Karnataka has been known for its ability to gradually ensure change and better the prospects of all sections — Dalits,backward castes and Muslims. As early as 1881,the then Maharaja of Mysore,Chamaraja Wodeyar,had inaugurated the Mysore Representative Assembly. It had,no doubt,a limited idea of membership,but it provided a forum for discussion and debate,the first in princely India. Political scientist James Manor points out that jatis may be seen not as a hierarchy,but as different groups that can be brought together in a variety of combinations,an idea that Karnataka might have been one of the first to play with. Now,in the 21st century,how the state’s electorate chooses its government may have an impact beyond its borders.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com