If you go by the record of our pollsters in the last five years, you will find they got it wrong as often as they got it right. The most famous example of a collective goof-up is, of course, the 2004 parliamentary elections. Every psephologist foresaw an NDA victory and the BJP far ahead of the Congress. Some virtually wrote the Congress’s obituary, claiming that the party could get less than 100 seats.

As we now know, the Congress party in fact ended up ahead of the BJP. In other professions, such major miscalculations would have forced people to shut shop, at least for a season or two, and appear suitably contrite.

But our psephologists moved merrily on to forecasting the next election without a pause. One pollster kept making the point on television that he had got it less wrong than everyone else.

Another questionable tactic of Indian pollsters is to keep drastically altering their guess estimates about poll outcomes in the six months leading to an election. Whereas the general belief is that unless a major scandal erupts, the majority of people do not change their minds in the three months before a poll, no matter how the campaigns of the political parties pan out.

So why do we adopt such a forgiving and tolerant attitude towards pollsters in our country? For one, there are a limited number of major players and you don’t really have much freedom of choice. If you fire your pollster, there is a good chance you may not get another well known face. Besides, there are always advertisers ready to bankroll surveys on the state of the nation and the likely poll outcome results, and enough credulous people to take the findings seriously.

... contd.