Opinion The new coalition age

The political matrix is mutating. The implosion of Lohia-wadi remnants in UP and Bihar is gathering momentum as the...

Aijaz Ilmi

February 8, 2010 10:41 PM IST First published on: Feb 8, 2010 at 10:41 PM IST

The political matrix is mutating. The implosion of Lohia-wadi remnants in UP and Bihar is gathering momentum as the Samajwadi Party and the JD (United) face desertions at the highest level. While Lallan Singh’s resignation as Bihar state president of the JD(U) signifies upper-caste tremors,the real buzz in heartland politics,with national ramifications,is the Amar Singh-Mulayam spat. Bihar’s assembly elections are just nine months away,but UP is hogging all the limelight as the latest potboiler has a heady mix of intrigue,corporate rivalry,blackmail and clannish loyalties. Keeping conspiracy theorists busy is the possibility of serious charges against most players in this sordid tale of survival; and that gives the Congress-led UPA,with various investigating agencies at its command,a crucial political lever to micromanage future alliances.

The larger national canvas gets further muddled with some in the Congress targeting and isolating NCP supremo Sharad Pawar over prices. The debate over joint cabinet responsibility and accountability has begun afresh. Even Sonia Gandhi’s brief interaction with Jayalalithaa at the Election Commission diamond jubilee celebrations riled the Congress’ major southern ally,the DMK. G.K. Vasan,senior Tamil Nadu Congress leader,had to step in to placate the DMK and reassure them that the alliance between the Congress and DMK remains,and that they will jointly contest the 2011 assembly elections. The last time Jayalalithaa met Sonia Gandhi — in 1999,at Subramaniam Swamy’s legendary tea party — the political repercussion was the fall of Vajpayee’s 13-month NDA regime.

The question that goes unanswered is why now? General elections are not due till 2014,the UPA has a comfortable majority,and the BJP is in the throes of internecine battle. The country is showing clear signs of economic revival. So why,and who,is reconfiguring the political matrix?

There are several leads as to why — but Mission UP 2012 is the biggest. The three states reportedly on Rahul Gandhi’s revival radar are Bihar in 2010,Tamil Nadu in 2011,and the icing on the political cake,UP in 2012. Any efforts at inner-party democracy could only come to electoral fruition in tandem with breaking the age old caste matrix that exists in UP and Bihar. Hence his attacks on the Shiv Sena and Raj Thackeray,which has potential with the electorate in UP and Bihar — indeed,praising Biharis’ success in competitive examinations is acknowledgement that was long overdue. But to for a sizable electoral impact,what is needed is to fine-tune the caste matrix which can contain the OBC-MBC combine. The attitude of upper castes,and the 18 per cent Muslims,will be crucial.

Whatever its TN plans,the Congress can ill afford to antagonise the DMK because its 18 MPs provide a crucial buffer at the Centre — and a tie up with the Samajwadi Party and its 24 MPs is difficult given the animosity since the Firozabad election.

Meanwhile Amar Singh,recently expelled,is handicapped in negotiating any future tie ups against Mayawati. Still,many are of the view that Singh must have some plan of action. Then again,the Congress’ Mission UP 2012 might need the shrewdest minds to take on Mayawati. Whatever else,given his expertise at getting diverse forces together,Amar Singh could be useful in the coalition era — especially if no single party is able to form a government following the 2012 UP assembly elections. Will the political matrix of the future have any role for such players? That is something that we all will have to wait and see.

The writer is chairman of the editorial board at the Kanpur-based ‘Daily Siyasat Jadid’