The curfew tolls the knell of parting day... And leaves the world to darkness and to me.” In thinking about post-election India, Thomas Gray’s words keep haunting me. Perhaps because this poem was titled “Elegy” and we are talking about an elegy for reforms. Perhaps because, in a different poem, Gray wrote, “where ignorance is bliss, ’tis folly to be wise” and that’s what assorted election manifestos are about. Perhaps because “Elegy” talks about “some mute inglorious Milton” and while there are glorious political uncertainties, there are inglorious economic certainties. Conceptually, there can be the following configurations: (1) Congress government; (2) BJP government; (3) Congress-led government; (4) BJP-led government; (5) Third Front, supported by the Congress from outside; (6) Third Front, supported by BJP from outside; and (7) Third Front government. One doesn’t need psephology to figure out Congress + BJP will add up to 280 seats or thereabouts. And clearly, neither Congress nor BJP is going to wither away. (1), (2) and (7) are therefore out. We are left with (3), (4), (5) and (6) and opinion polls, masquerading as precognition, will not get us any closer to which of the four is most likely, since quite a bit hinges on which is the largest party or largest alliance and subsequent exchange of one kind of portfolio for another.

Across psephologists, we have modal numbers like: Congress (135-150), BJP (135-145), SP (23-30), NCP (13-14), Trinamool (13-17), RJD-LJP (15), Shiv Sena (12), AGP (4-5), Akali Dal (4-5), DMK and allies (13-15), BSP (26-34), AIADMK and allies (30) and Left (35-40). That leaves the field wide open, since some incremental parties will not sleep with the enemy. Consequently, definitions of UPA and NDA are fungible. All one knows is (3) and (5) are a bit more likely than (4) and (6). However, there is greater certainty in the economic domain. The RBI has just told us the economy will grow by 6 per cent in 2009-10. The chief economic adviser has suggested a band of 5.5-7.5 per cent, which is so wide it is hardly illuminating. But, to be fair to the CEA, the upper part of the range is conditional on the US economy bottoming out by September, an unlikely event. Without this, the band is 5.5-6.5 per cent. And neither the RBI nor the CEA will vehemently disagree if one breaks up 2009-10 growth into 5.5 per cent for the first half and 6.5 per cent for the second half. From October 2009 we will thus settle into a trajectory of 6.5 (down from 8.5 per cent) and remain there until the world economy and exports perk up.

... contd.