Widespread deficiency of summer rains that constitute about 80 per cent of annual rainfall has led to dire predictions of droughts in no fewer than two hundred and forty six districts spread over ten states. From June to mid-August, when most planting takes place, the rains were 29 per cent lower than the (long-term) average. In UP, for example, the deficiency was more than 60 per cent. Rice, which is sown during the monsoon, is the worst affected, followed by sugar cane and oilseeds. In a panic reaction but with an unmistakable touch of bravado, the UPA announced a familiar slew of measures: imports, higher food subsidies, expansion of NREGA, early planting of winter crops and deferred repayment of loans. But the lessons that should have been learnt from the experience of dealing with droughts of varying intensity over several decades remain as elusive as ever.

Droughts involve not just loss of agricultural output and food shortage. Hardships manifest in malnutrition, poverty, disinvestment in human capital (e.g. withdrawal of children from school), liquidation of assets (e.g. sale of livestock) with impairment of future economic prospects, and, in extreme cases, mortality, given lack of easy access to credit and insurance markets.

That much of this devastation is avoidable is frequently glossed over. A recent study (Gaiha, R., K. Hill, S. Mathur and Vani S. Kulkarni (2009) “On Devastating Droughts”, NBER Conference on Climate Change: Past and Present, Cambridge, MA, 30-31 May, 2009), helps delineate some major concerns in an entitlement protection strategy. As state governments and village institutions (village councils or Panchayats) have key roles in organising and implementing relief, there are some pointers from a political economy perspective.

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