All of this notwithstanding, in a badly fragmented Lok Sabha Mayawati could emerge as India’s next prime minister. But her position as the leader of a revitalised third front is far less likely. Without a stable alliance behind her, it is hard to envision a Mayawati-led government lasting any longer than those of V.P. Singh, Chandra Shekhar, H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. Gujral or even her own previous governments in Uttar Pradesh. Indeed, the stability that Mayawati’s BSP may provide to UP thanks to its absolute majority there will be all but impossible at the national-level until she can find something—whether ideology or electoral calculation—to hold together her nascent third front.

The writer is a doctoral candidate in political science at MIT express@expressindia.com