LAST year was India’s 11th warmest year—since 1901. That’s the latest piece of history in India’s temperature trends compiled this month at the National Climate Centre (NCC) of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Pune. As the nation warms, forecasters here have begun research on computational models to predict seasonal temperatures the way they predict the monsoon.

‘‘We plan to issue an experimental long-range forecast of temperatures next year,’’ M Rajeevan, director, NCC, told The Sunday Express. ‘‘Since the IMD is using a dynamical model to predict the monsoon, we’ll test its skill for the seasonal prediction of temperatures also. It’s part of IMD’s research agenda to develop a seasonal temperature forecast model.’’

In Delhi, V S Ramamurthy, secretary, Department of Science and Technology, confirms: By next year they (NCC) should be able to give a fairly good seasonal temperature forecast like the monsoon forecast. Temperatures do make a difference, especially for agricultural patterns.’’

Researchers in Pune plot the long-range monsoon forecast released every summer in Delhi, and a separate team has been identified to start work on the long-range temperature forecast project as well.

FOR India, it’s the beginning of long-term research, but seasonal temperature forecasts are issued in the US. There’s a demand for it back home—among India’s 10 warmest years on record, half were post-2000. ‘‘The increase in temperature is small now, but the rate of change is increasing,’’ points out Ramamurthy.

The NCC’s Annual Climate Summary 2005 released this month indicates the trend: In 2005, annual mean temperature averaged over the country as a whole was +0.37 degrees celsius above the 1961-1990 average. Thus, 2005 was the 11th warmest year since 1901.’’ The report emphasises that last year was characterised by ‘‘above normal temperatures over different parts of the country.’’

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