Opinion The roots of failure

The cost of defence and police services has risen from $6 billion in 2007-08 to $10 billion in 2009-10,three times more than the bilateral assistance,military and economic,coming from the US. The public feeling is that despite increasing US assistance,Pakistan is paying a disproportionate cost in blood and treasure of the war on terror. Yet to any objective observer it would seem that,despite large remittances from the Pakistani diaspora,US military and economic aid is absolutely critical; without it,Pakistan would collapse.

Military and security/police expenditure accounted for 4.7 per cent of GDP in 2010-11 (military expenditure alone constituting 3.2 per cent). This is apart from the mushroom growth in private security services,with the Institute of Public Policy placing the number of private security guards in 2007-08 at over 200,000 personnel while the Daily Times estimates the figure at or more than the country’s total police force.

The nation has suffered from diversion of funds from “a social surge to a security surge”,especially in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The Swat and Waziristan campaigns against the Taliban resulted in large-scale damage to infrastructure,livestock and property and internally displaced 3.5 million people. Adverse impacts have fallen disproportionately on women and girls,an already disadvantaged group in a conservative society.

The study argues that terrorism embraces more than violence by religious extremists. “The seeds of violence,intolerance and extremism lie within the highly divisive,inequitable and discriminatory system of governance practiced in Pakistan. Civil society believes that feudalism,poverty,lack of investment in human development,and lack of attention to civil facilities for the poor and less privileged are the main factors for widespread despair and dissatisfaction in the country.” In FATA,women suffer “as Islam has been interpreted to them in a manner where women do not have any say… They are easily influenced and give their children for religious causes to become Mujahid.”

The terrorism confronted by Pakistan has “cross-border dynamics”,with security issues surrounded by threat perceptions,underlain by strong religious undertones related to political,ideological and cultural intolerance or biases. Non-state actors that pose a challenge to national security are also described as “a force multiplier in Pakistan.” The US is viewed both as partner and adversary while “the Tehreek-e-Taliban continues to use violence/terror to force the government to comply with its demands.” The conflict environment created by Afghanistan and the war on terror,the study says,is closely linked to the issue of social and religious identities backed by overt and covert foreign support. The dichotomy between concepts of a just society and an Islamic society,each claiming exclusive right to the truth,hinders dialogue. This has caused brutal divisions and thwarted efforts to cope with diverse moral values both within societies and cultures.

In the absence of alternative educational streams,madrasas (16,000 in 2005) have become important stakeholders in civil society in many areas,particularly Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and FATA. They focus on the study of Islam but do provide other basic education. Many view them with suspicion for allegedly teaching hate and intolerance. Of 245 religious organisations active in the country,145 are sectarian,25 are politically active and 12 are trying to establish “the Islamic caliphate system.” At least 24 are militant and “most are running madrasas and training camps.”

The trouble is that even the officially-mandated school textbooks exhibit strong bias. The SDPC’s own report The Subtle Subversion documents the warped history taught,distorting Pakistan’s antecedents and portraying India in a light that evokes scorn and enmity. Promised textbook reforms are still awaited. This in turn reflects Pakistan’s unwillingness and,now,inability in the face of huge vested interests in the military and religious right,to give itself a positive identity and get on with building a nation that is in some ways yet to be. “Kashmir”,“Afghanistan”,“the US” et al,are mere alibis for an inner cancer that only Pakistan can remove.

Now there are reports of discontent in the Pakistan army and resentment against the army and ISI chiefs. Though a “colonel’s coup” is being ruled out,the very speculation is dangerous. The magistrate conducting the in camera trial of 26/11 suspects in a Rawalpindi jail has been transferred for the fourth time! Islamabad has rejected calls for action against LeT and Jaish leaders for fear of an unmanageable backlash at home. The murder of Saleem Shahzad,who reported on links between elements in the Pakistan navy and al-Qaeda,allegedly by the ISI,is another straw in the wind.

Indians should not gloat if Pakistan appears to be sinking. This is not good news. We too have formidable problems and have grievously underperformed in many sectors. Yet a vibrant democracy precludes collapse and provides ballast in troubled times. The army-Mullah ruling combination however threatens the future of the Pakistani state. Only the people of Pakistan can defuse this ticking time-bomb. The SPDC has posed the problem. More steps must follow.

The writer is a former editor of ‘The Indian Express’