The ruling party is likely to counter the BJP allegations by highlighting its achievements. According to recent surveys, in a country-wide rating, the state has been ranked as the number one in elementary education and very high in health-care, infrastructure development and good governance. The ruling party will also highlight the unprecedented spread of secondary and higher education institutions in the state, the issue of their poor quality notwithstanding.

Three state-specific issues are also likely to figure prominently in the BJP campaign. The first relates to an audio recording of Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh and his MP wife, Pratibha Singh’s conversation with some industrialists/ businessmen. Of course, since the cassette is fairly old it may not have the same impact that it could have had earlier. Similarly, allegations of the discriminatory attitude of the present government towards the Kangra district in particular and the new/lower areas of the state in general, do not have the same appeal today as they had, say, 20 years ago.

Another matter that is likely to be used by the BJP is the allegedly vulgar dance at the birthday party of one of the Congress ministers, who resigned in the wake of its telecast by a TV channel. Although a judicial probe gave him a clean chit, yet in a state like Himachal, perceived to be the land of gods and goddesses, the issue may still be open to political use.

Notwithstanding the issues, the final outcome of elections will depend on the structure of the contest. There is evidence to suggest that a direct Congress-BJP clash benefits the former. When a third party, even if it is minor, enters the fray, the electoral outcome becomes not only uncertain but clearly detrimental to the Congress.

... contd.