The second election

Another matter that is likely to be used by the BJP is the allegedly vulgar dance at the birthday party of one of the Congress ministers, who resigned in the wake of its telecast by a TV channel. Although a judicial probe gave him a clean chit, yet in a state like Himachal, perceived to be the land of gods and goddesses, the issue may still be open to political use.

Notwithstanding the issues, the final outcome of elections will depend on the structure of the contest. There is evidence to suggest that a direct Congress-BJP clash benefits the former. When a third party, even if it is minor, enters the fray, the electoral outcome becomes not only uncertain but clearly detrimental to the Congress.

Himachal Vikas Congress, floated by Pandit Sukh Ram entered the electoral battle in 1998, and although it won only four seats in a House of 68 it was enough to oust the ruling party from power. Likewise, during the 1990 assembly elections, the JD led by Thakur Ram Lall was in the fray as the third force, and the combined strength of the BJP (43 seats) and the JD (11 seats) reduced the Congress tally to just 8. In contrast, when there was a direct contest in 1985 the Congress won hands down getting 55 seats, reducing the BJP tally to 7. It was a repeat performance by the Congress in the 1993 elections where again, in a direct contest, it won 53 seats and the BJP had to be content with only 7. Again in 2003, the Congress bagged 46 seats, while the BJP got just 16.

A couple of other factors need to be considered to assess the impact of the BSP’s entry. One, the political clout of Mankotia, who is leading the BSP charge, is not comparable to that of Thakur Ram Lall or to that of Pandit Sukh Ram. Two, both of...