Himachal Vikas Congress, floated by Pandit Sukh Ram entered the electoral battle in 1998, and although it won only four seats in a House of 68 it was enough to oust the ruling party from power. Likewise, during the 1990 assembly elections, the JD led by Thakur Ram Lall was in the fray as the third force, and the combined strength of the BJP (43 seats) and the JD (11 seats) reduced the Congress tally to just 8. In contrast, when there was a direct contest in 1985 the Congress won hands down getting 55 seats, reducing the BJP tally to 7. It was a repeat performance by the Congress in the 1993 elections where again, in a direct contest, it won 53 seats and the BJP had to be content with only 7. Again in 2003, the Congress bagged 46 seats, while the BJP got just 16.

Given this scenario, the possibility of a triangular contest in the forthcoming elections where the BSP under the leadership of Vijay Singh Mankotia, a former Congress minister, is all set to enter the fray, needs to be watched. Assuming that its vote bank will comprise largely of the dalits, it will cut more into Congress votes than those of the BJP.

A couple of other factors need to be considered to assess the impact of the BSP’s entry. One, the political clout of Mankotia, who is leading the BSP charge, is not comparable to that of Thakur Ram Lall or to that of Pandit Sukh Ram. Two, both of them belonged to regions of the state that are traditional Congress strongholds: Shimla and Mandi respectively. In contrast, Mankotia’s home ground is Kangra where the BJP has strong roots. Thus, if the BSP makes its presence felt mainly in Kangra, it may affect the Congress tally marginally.

... contd.