The Siachen jinx

At least three times in the past — in 1989,1992 and 2005 — India came close to finessing the differences with Pakistan and agreeing to a mutual disengagement from the Siachen glacier. Each time,the Congress leadership in power succumbed to pressures from the hardliners in the security establishment and stepped back. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh actively sought to resolve the issue during 2005 and hinted at possible practical steps forward when he received Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari in Delhi last April. He might now have the dubious distinction of backing down twice on Siachen.

It is not that Pakistan’s record has been flawless. Rawalpindi has insisted on unconditional disengagement,has vacillated on recording the current ground positions,and its Kargil aggression in 1999 reinforced the hardliners in Delhi who point to the possibility of Pakistan army occupying the Siachen heights after an Indian withdrawal and the extraordinary difficulty in retaking them. That does not,however,exonerate the Siachen flip-flops in Delhi,which is deeply divided between those calling for pragmatism and others refusing any compromise. If he does not have the political will to impose a measure of flexibility into the Indian negotiating position on Siachen,the PM should convey that unambiguously to the Pakistani leadership and demonstrate a positive approach in other areas. Such realism on India’s part might help limit the inevitable damage from the failed Siachen talks at a time when the bilateral relationship is showing much promise in other areas like trade,people-to-people contact and additional confidence-building measures in Jammu & Kashmir.