The slowdown cloud
Indias growth story is under threat until reform is back on UPAs agenda,it will stay so
The threats to Indias growth story have become terrifyingly real. Foreign institutional investors,essential to keep funds flowing into much-needed but underfunded infrastructure projects,are fleeing India and heading to other,better-performing Asian markets or to the safe havens that are commodities and precious metals. Even Indian companies capable of investing abroad prefer to do so. India cannot export itself out of this mess,because the destinations for its exports America and Europe are in even worse trouble. Nor can domestic demand be relied on,as consumer sentiment collapses,eroded by uncertainty and persistently high inflation. Without an increase in growth prospects,sentiment will not recover; without improved sentiment,high growth will not return. India is in a classic trap.
Such traps are broken,of course,by dynamic government action. Only the government can provide the coordinated impetus that can simultaneously repair growth and fix consumer and investor sentiment. Usually,that impetus is through a fiscal stimulus but that is,of course,completely out of the question for a government with such overstretched resources. Theres only one possible response therefore: a new,sweeping,
wider,reform agenda.
The UPAs hesitant commitment to the reform agenda is what is holding it back from reversing the tide of misfortune that has rolled over the government. There are obvious steps to be taken: pushing the land acquisition law; opening up investment in agriculture; removing roadblocks to the Goods and Services Tax. Some of these have been spoken of before,but have suffered because of poor political management or an apparent lack of interest. Others,like agricultural reform,have suffered from the UPAs shocking hesitancy in pushing anything that smacks of reform far enough forward. In order to change the subject,the government must restate its own objectives. It should remember it needs to build a political case for reform in order to reform successfully; and it must realise that the India growth story and its own stability will only recover once it has shown its commitment to further economic restructuring. Above all,the Centre needs to look at successful states and at its own experience and realise: the next step must be governance reform. Indias economy needs it and it appears Indias voters increasingly demand it. Shying away from the agenda that it must take on will do neither the Congress-led UPA nor India any good.
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