That only means political stability in Nepal is still far away, and that peace and democracy may not be institutionalised so easily. The hope that Madhav Nepal could provide a durable and effective coalition is thinning. Moreover, the country faces a serious law and order problem with Maoists reverting to the subversion of peace and harassing their political rivals.

In less than three weeks, the prime minister seems to have lost the faith of both President Rambaran Yadav and the Nepal army. With most political parties except the Nepali Congress reconsidering joining the government, and with Maoists actively engaged in paralysing the state, the president and Nepal army losing faith in the PM is not a healthy sign.

Madhav Nepal, considered a timid person, has failed to get his party — CPN-UML— to stand by President Yadav’s May 3 decision to stay Prachanda’s unilateral sacking of Army Chief Katawal and appoint Lt. Gen Kul Bahadur Khadka as the new chief. In fact, it was on the advice of Nepal and 17 other parties that the president took the controversial stand that led to Prachanda’s resignation as PM. While Gen R. Katawal continues to be chief of army staff following the president’s order, the present Cabinet has not even annulled Prachanda’s decision to make Lt. Gen Khadka the acting chief of the army. On the other hand, the PM asked Gen Katawal to shelve the move to constitute a court of inquiry to initiate court martial proceedings against Khadka on the charge of ‘breach of discipline, hobnobbing with politicians and conspiring to wreck the army from within’.

A weak government, and a PM at loggerheads with the army chief does not augur well. In fact, right from Prachanda’s resignation citing a Nepal army-president nexus, the army has been at the centre of the current political polarisation. That situation will change only when the political leadership is strong, and it has the vision and courage to own the Nepal army and undertake the necessary reform. By refusing to correct the Maoist-led government’s changes in army top brass, Madhav Nepal is creating a situation where the army may not remain friendly as during the Maoist regime.

With the major constitutional institutions and government apparatus under severe strain, there seems to be increasing realisation on the part of the international community that the Nepal army is, at the moment, the most effective institution for country’s stability. In a rare gesture in the wake of the Maoist government’s collapse, the Chinese ambassador extended full support to the Nepal army. The gesture came almost around the same time as the US assistant secretary for South and Central Asian affairs, Robert Blake’s suggestion of increased coordination between the US and Nepali army.

In brief, in what appears like a Nepal army versus Maoist tussle that has caused both the isolation of the Maoists and the heroic projection of the army as a political instrument may have disastrous consequences. But unfortunately, the army feeling ‘disowned’ by the government during the Maoist-led regime, and delay on Madhav Nepal’s part to reverse the decision of change in army leadership will continue to fuel the current level of distrust. Sadly, Madhav Nepal appears unable to address the source of that distrust.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com