Nine months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world's economic crisis is still usually discussed as though it consisted of dire bank balance-sheets, falling exports and bankruptcies or job losses in the West. But at the other end of the trail that starts with financial woes in rich countries are underweight children and anaemic expectant mothers in poor ones. New research by the United Nations' standing committee on nutrition (available on www.unscn.org) gives a first estimate of how the crisis has hurt the group of people most affected by the crash: the very poorest.

In 1990-2007, the number of hungry people rose by about 80m, though this was, by and large, a period of rising incomes in developing countries (and a huge increase in population). In 2008 alone, the number rose a further 40m, to 963m — half as much in one year as during the previous 17. In other words, lots more children and pregnant women are not getting the food they need. The report reckons that the number of underweight children will rise from 121m to 125m by 2010, assuming no change in the size of the world economy (in fact, it is expected to shrink 2 per cent this year). The World Bank has already estimated that until 2015 the crisis will lead to between 200,000 and 400,000 more children dying every year.

The poorest face two crises: the world recession and the resumption of food-price rises. Food prices had been falling but even then, the global price fall did not translate into a comparable decline on local markets in most poor countries, so the poor did not benefit much. World prices bottomed out in December 2008 and have since risen 26 per cent. In the poorest countries, a rise of 50 per cent in the price of staples pushes up the family food budget from 50 per cent to 60 per cent of household income.

... contd.