The UP assembly polls was a moment of truth for the SP. While the party had increased its vote share fractionally —from 25.4 per cent in the previous election to 25.5 per cent even as its seat tally dipped from 143 to 97— its apparent ‘retaining’ of the vote share could not have reassured the party.

A closer look at the results showed evidence of a lot of churn. Of those who voted for the SP in the last assembly elections, about one-third shifted loyalties, more than in the case of the BSP voters. The SP could retain only 44 of the 143 seats it had won earlier. According to data from the Indian Express- CNN-IBN -CSDS post poll survey 2007 and a similar post-poll survey conducted by the CSDS in 2002, the Yadav voters did support the SP as much as last time, but evidence pointed at an erosion of Muslim vote for SP by about 7 percent — from 54 per cent to 47. The SP lost about 2 percentage point votes and seven seats in the constituencies with high concentration of Muslim population.

The numbers could not have been more sobering for the SP. May 2007 signalled that Mulayam’s core Muslim vote might not hold strong, especially if the Muslim voters did not fear the return of the BJP, that the party could be open to poaching in the coming Lok Sabha polls, and that did not have strong auxiliary support from any other section of society. The SP leadership also realised that transient votes would not come into its fold now that the party had lost power and patronage.

... contd.