As Pakistan’s elected representatives meekly surrendered to the extremists in Swat on Monday, a leading American expert on South Asia cautioned the Obama Administration that negotiating with the Taliban could be “the worst possible approach" towards stabilising Afghanistan.

In a report published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington Monday, Ashley Tellis argued that “any effort at reconciliation” with the Taliban will “undermine the credibility of American power and the success of the Afghan mission.”

At a time when President Barack Obama’s national security team has decided that differentiating between the good Taliban and the bad is the key to progress in Afghanistan, Tellis is making the case for an alternative strategy.

In his report titled “Reconciling with the Taliban?” Tellis warns that engaging the extremists in Afghanistan “would be the worst approach at this time—and it is destined to fail so long as key Taliban constituents are convinced that military victory in Afghanistan is inevitable.”

Imploring the Obama Administration not to panic, Tellis insists that “reconciling with the Taliban is both premature and unnecessary for the success of Western aims.” Tellis points to opinion surveys indicating that “the Afghan public, by an overwhelming margin of 82 per cent to 4 per cent, is still very much opposed to the Taliban—not only viewing them as the country’s biggest threat but also desperately seeking the success that ought to accrue from the presence of Western military forces in their country.”

“Consequently, although the situation in Afghanistan is serious, it is by no means hopeless—and can be retrieved through a concerted modification of current NATO strategy, including a return to proper counter-insurgency operations,” Tellis adds.

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