Hindsight gives us some idea as to why the conventionalists got it wrong. They were peering into the future through lenses that focused unduly on the tangible. It did not capture the collage created by the combination of individual creativity, market dynamics and information technology. The financial crisis was seeded for instance by the whiz kids of Wall Street. They concocted the alchemists brew that turned sub prime mortgages into triple ‘A’ rated financial instruments. The brew tasted good in moderation but when driven by greed and on the back of integrated markets and information technology it became the drink of the global financial community it caused a systemic dysfunction. In similar vein but with more positive outcomes the political pundits failed to picture the power of Internet to ‘disintermediate’ established channels of political reach and to enable relative new comers like Obama to overcome the obstacles of group identity, entrenched prejudices and conventional psephology.

It would be naïve to argue that the events of 2008 mark a radical watershed. But it would be a mistake to ignore the signals that they emitted. If nothing else the signals suggest that the world does not revolve around an axis of only scientific principles and deterministic trends; that the future is not hostage to precedent. The votaries of change post Mumbai should pick on these straws to sustain their efforts to buck the conventional trend.

One idea for instance that has been floated but which conventionalism would rubbish can gain credence from such signals. This is an idea premised on three assumptions. Coalition governments in the Centre are here to stay; no single party will have the numbers to ride roughshod over its coalition partners and a cohesive group of 50-60 parliamentarians could well therefore hold the balance of power. The idea is to identify and then somehow get elected such a number of individuals of integrity and public spirit and for them to use their disproportionate clout to check public venality and executive incompetence. The conventionalists would dismiss the idea as impractical and infeasible. Elections require funds; candidates need to be backed by organisations and whilst integrity is a fine word it counts for little in the hurly burly of our electoral battles.

... contd.