But every political theory in India, particularly one that promises to redefine all our power equations, must survive the test of Uttar Pradesh.

IT is a tough test because nothing has changed with the prejudices, hatred and insecurities which brought about this divided politics in the first place. Most Muslims you meet in the thickly-populated and prosperous western UP grain-bowl between the Jamuna and the Ganga and up to the fringes of Terai still fear the BJP. They will tell you, of course, that Muslims and Hindus are brothers, but if there is one thought they loathe, it is the BJP coming to power. So they will vote for whoever they think can defeat the BJP. That, therefore, is the static part of the state’s politics. But there is a difference now. They no longer see Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP as the only party capable of doing that. In places they think Mayawati’s upper caste candidate is more likely to defeat saffron; in some — though much fewer — places, they think the vote-split between SP, BSP and BJP may be such that the rejuvenating Congress may prevail if only the Muslims swing towards it. This is one of the reasons why, as NDTV’s exit polls predict, you will see the Congress vote share rising this time. It will not get close to the 20 per cent mark where votes start translating into seats rapidly, but it will rise sufficiently to give the party a new heart, to deny Mulayam and his SP a fresh term and to pull the state’s politics back towards the Centre.

... contd.