Recent developments in US-India relations will make next year’s US presidential election all the more important for Indians. In particular, the next US president’s policies on economic and nuclear matters, as well as his or her broader strategic vision, will impact India enormously. So how are the presidential candidates faring? Based on their statements, publications and actions, how have they positioned themselves on India?

On January 3, the state of Iowa will hold caucuses marking the first electoral test for US presidential candidates. By February 5, about half of the 50 states will have held their caucuses or primary elections, quite likely determining the Democrat and Republican parties’ candidates to contest the polls in November.

The presidential nomination process has received some jolts in recent weeks. On the Democratic side, frontrunner Hillary Clinton has seen her rival Barack Obama catch up with her in the polls, particularly in key states with early votes. Former Senator John Edwards is trailing at a distant third.

Among Republicans, the former governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, has catapulted to the lead in Iowa, and is in a healthy second place nationally. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani still leads national polls among Republicans, while former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads in New Hampshire and averages a close second to Huckabee in Iowa. Meanwhile, Senator John McCain, previously a frontrunner, has seen his popularity plummet to only 13 per cent nationally, behind Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney.

On India, Hillary Clinton has been extremely cautious in her statements, despite being co-chair of the Senate India caucus. While she has written that India needs “an augmented voice in regional and international institutions, such as the UN”, she has avoided explicitly saying that India deserves a permanent seat on the Security Council. On economic matters, she is seen as more favourable towards outsourcing than her main Democratic rivals. She has also advocated that the US work with India, Australia and Japan on “issues of mutual concern, including combating terrorism, cooperating on global climate control, protecting global energy supplies, and deepening global economic development”. On nuclear matters, Clinton has promised to encourage the US Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) by 2009. She also voted in favour of the Hyde Act last year, which enabled civilian nuclear commerce with India.

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