With global forecast models dismissing the emergence of El Nino, India is looking at normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season beginning in June.

In the first two months, rainfall is likely to be above normal in most parts of the southern peninsula, and in the north-east and adjoining eastern India. This is based on the forecast multi-model used by the US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).

Agricultural production depends heavily on even and timely distribution of rainfall. In 2005, though the overall monsoon was normal, its erratic behaviour had spoilt the prospects of the kharif crop and as a result, agriculture and allied sectors could grow at only 2.3 per cent.

Experts feel that a good monsoon performance in the current year could push up farm growth to 3.5-4 per cent and the overall GDP growth to over 8.5 per cent.

Apart from IRI, other US agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have dismissed the possibility of an El Nino emergence.

The warming of Pacific waters above the normal range causes the El Nino phenomenon, which historically causes disruptions in weather patterns and droughts. La Nina, the opposite phenomenon, causes excess rainfall.

According to signals received by the IRI, major parts of southern peninsula, north-eastern India and parts of eastern India will receive excess rainfall in May-July 2006. While the monsoon usually begins from June, the IRI’s indication is not clear whether this means an early start of rains. The IRI has also predicted 40 per cent probability of temperatures above the normal range over parts of western and northern India in May-July.

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