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There’s three of us in this relationship

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  • As she prepares to sign the 123 agreement in New Delhi on Saturday, the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice has every reason to celebrate the successful conclusion of the historic civil nuclear initiative that she had launched during her first visit to India three and a half years ago.

    Cheer it as we have all these years, the Indo-US nuclear deal is now history. A very different agenda, equally bold and consequential, now beckons New Delhi and Washington. It is about the potential Indian contributions to the current international effort to stabilise Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    When Rice came to India in March 2005, Pakistan was indeed at the top of her ‘talking points’ with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. For one, she informed Dr. Singh about Washington’s decision, already made by President George W. Bush, to resume arms sales to Pakistan.It was a move that India would normally have protested given New Delhi’s habit of objecting to US arms sales to Pakistan since 1954. But Rice also told the PM that the US was prepared to dramatically expand strategic cooperation with India as part of a new commitment to assist India’s rise as a great power.

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    While Pakistan would get its F-16s India would stand to gain from the transfer of advanced conventional weapons, including more advanced F-16s, civilian nuclear and space cooperation, and support on missile defence.

    In 2005, Rice promised to reverse traditional US policy towards the subcontinent — Washington would no longer put India on par with Pakistan, but treat it as a rising power that could make a difference to the outcomes on most global issues. The India-US nuclear deal was a mere consequence of this paradigm shift.

    If taking Pakistan out of the bilateral equation in March 2005 helped change Indo-US relations, putting it back in might deepen the proposed partnership. To be sure, many in New Delhi would protest vehemently. Having finally got rid of the Pakistan baggage, why on the earth should New Delhi and Washington bring Islamabad back again to the centre of their engagement? For two good reasons.

    One, the war on terror in Afghanistan has now boiled over into Pakistan. It is no longer possible to think separately about their futures. The other, the rapidly deteriorating situation in the northwestern parts of the subcontinent is the biggest source of external security threat to both India and the US.

    That India and the US have begun to talk seriously about Pakistan and Afghanistan was evident when Bush publicly thanked Dr. Singh for his “inputs” on the regional situation at their meeting last week. Pakistan and Afghanistan also featured prominently in the India-Europe Summit at Marseilles, France. This is no surprise, since European troops are also battling the Taliban and the al Qaida across the Durand Line.

    As the US and Europe review their strategy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan, there are many ways in which India could help. Here below is a list of specifics that should figure in the talks with Rice today.

    Boosting Afghan military strength: In their joint statement in Marseilles, India and Europe “agreed that strengthening Afghan security and military forces would help in the enforcement of the rule of law”. While India is reluctant to send troops to Afghanistan, it can train the Afghan army, help create its air force, and strengthen its police and paramilitary forces.

    More effective economic assistance: India’s economic activity in Afghanistan has proved far more effective than Western aid. New Delhi can offer to set up a dedicated aid agency for Afghanistan to channel international economic assistance.

    Promoting trilateral cooperation: In his speech to the UN general assembly last week, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari said cooperation between Kabul, Islamabad and New Delhi holds the key to resolving regional problems. India must explore launching a trilateral mechanism for cooperation.

    Supporting ‘Friends of Pakistan: Last week, on the margins of the UN, the US launched a new group called ‘Friends of Pakistan’ to organise an economic bailout for Islamabad. This group includes not only major Western nations, but also China, UAE and Turkey. Besides lending public political support to this group, New Delhi can pitch in with its own initiatives.

    Reducing tariff barriers: India must announce an early unilateral reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers that today constrain Pakistan’s exports to India. This will fit in with Dr. Singh and Zardari’s stated aim to open up the Punjab and Rajasthan borders for unfettered overland trade.

    International market access: New Delhi must ask Rice to consider preferential access to the US and European markets to goods that are co-produced by India and Pakistan. Extending the proposal to set up “reconstruction opportunity zones” on the Pak-Afghan border eastwards will reinforce Pakistan’s regional economic integration.

    Dr. Singh’s recent engagement with Bush, Sarkozy and Zardari have opened the doors for unprecedented Indian cooperation with the international community to promote stability, political moderation and economic modernisation in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the talks with Rice, India must explore the prospects for a reconstitution of its neighbourhood in cooperation with the US and the other major powers.

    The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohan@ntu.edu.sg

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