If China’s toughening stance on Arunachal Pradesh has surprised New Delhi and stalled the boundary negotiations, which began amidst great expectations in 2003, India must brace itself for another equally disconcerting development.

As the representatives of the Dalai Lama head out to China today for the sixth round of consultations, the indications are that Beijing’s renewed engagement with the Dalai Lama since 2002 faces the prospect of becoming a false promise. On the eve of his departure to China, the Dalai Lama’s Special Envoy, Lodi Gyaltsen Gyari, told this writer that Tibetan “sincerity and commitment alone can’t resolve the issue. The Chinese leadership must convince us and the rest of the world of its sincerity”.

Until recently, the Tibetan leadership has avoided quibbling in public with Beijing. Dharmashala, however, has begun to confront the likelihood that the talks with Beijing might go nowhere. Sceptics on the Tibetan side, who had always questioned the value of these talks, are gearing up to say, “We told you so!” Underlying the gathering Tibetan pessimism is the perception that China has hardened its position despite the many concessions offered by the Dalai Lama, including the repeated affirmation that he is no longer seeking independence for Tibet.

New Delhi is aware that a potential down-turn in Sino-Tibetan engagement could reinforce the negative dynamic that has begun to envelop the Sino-Indian boundary talks. On the face of it, these two negotiations are vastly different. One is about the internal reconciliation between Beijing and the Dalai Lama. The other is about a territorial dispute between New Delhi and Beijing. But both are ultimately about the future of Tibet, which remains a defining element in Sino-Indian relations.

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